This is the third in a series of articles analyzing various issues caused by the deepening generational divide that is affecting Korean society.— ED.
By Kang Hyun-kyung
Young people will be further marginalized, while the old generation will have a greater say, as a numbers game is played out with Korea’s ageing society.
Already, those in their 20s and 30s are outnumbered by those in the 50s and 60s, as was seen ahead of the Dec. 19 presidential election, in which conservative candidate Park Geun-hye won despite a higher voter turnout that is usually seen as a factor favoring liberals.
This could make the young disillusioned and lead them to shy away from politics, leaving it in the hands of the older conservatives.
This has happened in some ageing European countries and is happening in Korea, according to June J. H. Lee, chief of mission for the International Organization for Migration (IOM) Seoul office.
“Elderly voters in Europe are pension recipients. They are active voters and go to the polling stations to vote against change, including immigration,” Lee said Monday.
She said Korea seems to be undergoing severer tensions between the younger and older generations, noting the two are more confrontational here than in any other ageing country.
Lee pointed her finger at the condensed social transformation that Korea has experienced within the past three or four decades as the key driver of the generational rift.
The government has projected that the nation’s population will begin to decrease from 2030 as birthrates continue to fall sharply. Coupled with this, a longer life expectancy will make Korea older.
By that time, those in their 20s and 30s will find it difficult to see their favorite candidates winning the National Assembly or presidential elections because the ratio of this voter group will continue to decrease.
According to the National Election Commission, this age group accounted for 38.2 percent of the entire electorate in 2012, whereas elderly voters in their 50s or older stood at 40 percent.
Five years ago, the two age groups made up an almost equal portion of the population, indicating the demographic shift is in favor of candidates popular among older voters.
The worst-case scenario is that politicians will likely turn a deaf ear to calls from younger people.
Lee said job creation for young people could prevent confrontation between the younger generation and senior citizens.
In the political circle, meanwhile, the ageing population has prompted liberals to worry about their political future, as indicated by the Dec. 19 presidential election.
Although the election was over weeks ago, the liberals are still wrestling with the fundamental question of whether or not they have any future in an era of an ageing population.
Park’s victory in the Dec. 19 election came as a shock to them. The root cause of Moon Jae-in’s defeat was believed to be the consequence of a distinct generational divide between younger and older voters.
The fear that liberals might not be able to take power again is threatening their political future, making them feel that there is no way out from the post-election blues.
In a recent interview, Nam Jae-hee, a former labor minister, said that Park was in an advantageous position as her home turf, the Gyeongsang region, has more voters.
“Coupled with the disproportionate voter population by region, the source of campaign information also affected the election results,” he said. “I saw a newspaper article that said elderly citizens rely on print media and broadcasting, which are allegedly conservative and in favor of the ruling Saenuri Party, to get election information, whereas younger people read Internet news.”
In the current political landscape, Nam said, it will be hard for liberals to win an election, unless it was held in an emergency, simply because conservative voters outnumber liberal supporters. Kim Dae-jung, a liberal who was thought to be left-wing, was elected at a time when Korea was engulfed by a currency crisis, called the worst peacetime disaster to hit the country.
Before the polling stations opened, liberal politicians thought everything was perfect. Moon fiercely chased Park in the later part of the campaign and some last-minute polls even showed he could end up achieving a come-from-behind victory.
A high turnout was seen as a blessing for liberals. They felt that the Democratic United Party (DUP) candidate was bound to win because conventional election wisdom said the opposition gains the upper hand, if turnouts are high.
The DUP received sweeping support from voters in their 20s and 30s, but senior voters in their 50s or older gave the cold shoulder to the liberal party.