By Kang Hyun-kyung
The gap between Rep. Park Geun-hye of the ruling Saenuri Party and her two rivals has narrowed in hypothetical two—way races, according to a survey on the last day of the Chuseok holiday.
The Chosun Ilbo-Media Research poll released Tuesday found that Park was in a neck and neck race in a hypothetical two-way race with independent Ahn Cheol-soo, showing his ratings have dropped after the holiday.
Park scored 44.7 percent, compared with Ahn’s 47. 4 percent, showing the two are competing within a margin of error.
In a poll taken two weeks ago, the gap between the two was at 8.7 percentage points in Ahn’s favor.
The latest poll shows that Park is also in a tight race with Rep. Moon Jae-in, the presidential candidate of the main opposition Democratic United Party (DUP), in a hypothetical two-way race. Park marked 46.4 percent while Moon’s rating was 46.1 percent.
Heo Jin-jae, a Gallup pollster, said the rise in Ahn’s ratings in September seemed to be a reflection of the so-called “convention effect” referring to a short-term surge of popularity of a candidate after they declare their presidential bid.
“It usually lasts for one or two weeks. Ahn’s ratings showed signs of dropping from late September,” he said. The software millionaire declared his bid on Sept. 19.
“I think that the waning of Ahn’s ratings is a combined result of the weakening of the convention effect and the eruption of a set of fresh allegations regarding his tax evasion and plagiarism. I can’t tell which one played a bigger role in pulling down his ratings, though.”
The Chosun Ilbo poll results have drawn keen attention because they were the first released after the holiday.
Family members met with relatives living in other parts of the country during Chuseok.
Younger and older generations would have exchanged ideas on the presidential election, their preferred candidate and campaign issues.
Some of them are apt to change their preferred candidate following such conversations and this leads to a shift of public opinion.
“Ahn’s support base is among those who live in the greater Seoul area and 40-somethings, whereas people living in the eastern part of the nation and those in their 50s or older tend to back Park,” Heo said. “Either side can be affected by other family members in different age groups during family gatherings.”
Heo, however, remained cautious about the prospects of the presidential election result based on the poll, saying there are several factors that make it difficult to predict the result.
“We have no idea whether Ahn and Moon will finally agree to select a unified candidate to prevent a vote split. Even if they do, we have no idea who will be the standard bearer of the opposition camp and compete with Park,” he said.