By Lee Tae-hoon
The clock seems to be ticking for Ahn Cheol-soo’s possible declaration of his presidential bid with only 100 days left before the election slated for Dec. 19.
Still, he and his close associates continue to remain tight-lipped on the timing of any announcement.
Legally speaking, the IT mogul-turned professor can withhold the announcement of his presidential bid until Nov. 26, the last day of the two-day candidacy registration for the presidential poll.
Political pundits, however, forecast that Ahn will declare his candidacy this month upon the completion of the main opposition Democratic United Party’s (DUP) ongoing primary election, which is being marred by glitches in the mobile voting system and violence.
Ko Sung-kuk, a political scientist, predicts that the media-shy professor of Seoul National University will declare his candidacy about two to three days after the DUP announces the winner of its presidential nomination race.
“Ahn will likely wait until the DUP completes its internal contest to elect its presidential candidate,” he said.
He noted that Ahn would not want to spoil the party’s primary, which has failed to draw public attention due largely to his overwhelming popularity as a possible presidential candidate and the predictability of Rep. Moon Jae-in’s win.
Moon, a lawyer-turned-politician, snatched his 10th consecutive victory Sunday with 62.7 percent of the 24,084 ballots cast in the regional primary for Sejong City, Daejeon, and South Chungcheong Province, further solidifying his strong lead.
The DUP’s lackluster race turned even uglier that day as party members scuffled and threw eggs and water bottles toward party Chairman Lee Hae-chan to express their displeasure for their party’s failure to boost the excitement of the nomination election and guarantee the fairness of mobile voting.
Moon has thus far earned 50.4 percent of 129,052 votes cast in the 10 primaries. Former DUP Chairman Sohn Hak-kyu lags far behind Moon with 23.5 percent of the vote, followed by former South Gyeongsang Province Governor Kim Doo-kwan with 18.3 percent and another former DUP chief Chung Sye-kyun with 7.8 percent.
The DUP plans to name its presidential candidate on Sept. 16, but a runoff will be held on Sept. 23 if none of its five contenders wins a majority of the votes in the primary race.
Yoon Hee-yoong, a senior analyst at the Korea Society Opinion Institute, predicts that Ahn will make the announcement before Chuseok, one of the country’s biggest traditional holidays that falls on Sept. 30 this year.
“It is highly likely that he declares his candidacy before the Chuseok holiday, which would provide an opportunity to spread and cement a positive public opinion for him,” he said.
Nevertheless, some political watchers say the announcement might be made even before the DUP selects its standard bearer for the upcoming presidential poll.
“There is no reason for Ahn to wait longer as the DUP’s race is practically over,” said Shin Yul, a professor of politics at Myongji University.
He said that Moon, a former chief of staff to the late President Roh Moo-hyun, is set to clinch the victory in the DUP primary election.
Observers say Ahn reaffirmed his intention to join the presidential race by divulging last Thursday an “alleged blackmail attempt” by Jeong June-guil, a former prosecutor who investigated start-up businesses’ bribing of a Korea Development Bank (KDB) official in 2002.
Jeong, who stepped down Friday as a member of the ruling Saenuri Party’s communications team, threatened to disclose allegations of Ahn’s bribing of a KDB official and an extramarital affair.
Some say Ahn’s surprise counterattack against the Saenuri Party’s negative campaigning hints that he is ready to confront the governing party’s presidential contender, Park Geun-hye.
They say that though he still may not run, a growing number of signs indicate that such a scenario is not on the cards.
Opinion polls show Ahn remains the only viable contender to defeat Park, who has a strong regional support base in the populous southeastern provinces and among older voters who feel nostalgia for her late father, former President Park Chung-hee.
President Park is credited with the country’s industrialization and rapid economic growth in the 1960s and 1970s, but has also been criticized for his authoritarian rule.
DUP insiders say Ahn will likely seek to form a political alliance with Moon or endorse Moon to defeat Park.
They argue that both Ahn and Moon fear splitting the liberal vote and allowing the former leader of the Saenuri Party to clinch an easy victory.