By Kim Young-jin
A recently-circulated rumor that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un was assassinated in China, though debunked, demonstrates the urgent need for regional players to prepare for contingencies in the nuclear-armed state, a U.S. security expert warned Sunday.
The assessment from Jennifer Lind, a political scientist at Dartmouth College, came after reports exploded on Chinese social media sites as well as Twitter that the newly-installed leader had been killed at the North Korean embassy in Beijing. U.S. officials were quoted as saying the rumors were unfounded.
“This episode shows us just how quickly we could see the onset of serious political instability in North Korea, which reminds us of the need for South Korea, the United States and other countries to have plans in place for dealing with instability there,” Lind said in an email.
Similar rumors have circulated about Kim Jong-un since he took power after the death of his father, Kim Jong-il, and are regarded as attempts to disrupt the economy in the South at a time of uncertainty in the North.
Analysts have long been concerned that not enough planning has taken place among regional players to deal with the potential collapse of the North, fearing that a lack of coordination could lead to disastrous miscalculations.
Lind said the potential death of Kim Jong-un could open Pyongyang to a wide range of scenarios. On the one hand, he could be replaced by another representative of the Kim family regime in relatively swift fashion. Or it could touch off a power struggle that could escalate to civil war or other forms of significant instability, she said.
“This might include the disappearance of ‘loose nukes’ and other weapons of mass destruction across international borders, a humanitarian disaster...and the potential for ongoing insurgency and violence. Hunger and insecurity could trigger a massive refugee crisis if North Koreans seek food and safety.”
A study co-conducted by Lind said between and 267,000 and 409,500 troops would be needed to stabilize the North and its nuclear weapons in the case of its collapse, even under the most benign of conditions.
The glaring problem, analysts say, is that the major likely players ㅡ the United States, South Korea and China ㅡ appear to have been planning independently and without establishing proper rules of engagement. Experts say Beijing resists such dialogue given its close relations with the North, which could interpret the planning as an attempt to foster regime change.
Lind said Seoul and Washington should pursue all possible levels of dialogue with China over the matter, including meetings among academics, while continuing to seek official talks.
“The more consultation and communication that the United States and South Korea have with China earlier on, the better. All three countries share an interest in a stable peninsula, and in avoiding crisis escalation,” she said.
Though Pyongyang has outwardly projected confidence about the hereditary power transfer, concerns linger that Kim Jong-un, thought to be in his late twenties, could face challenges given his inexperience.