By Kang Hyun-kyung
BEIJING — North Korea’s dependency on China after the death of Kim Jong-il has drawn fresh attention as experts predicted Sino-North Korea ties will likely intensify during the power transition in the “Hermit Kingdom.”
In a paper presented in December, Choi Sung-kun, a senior fellow of Hyundai Economic Research Institute, said bilateral trade between the two nations hit record-high $4.7 billion last year.
The bilateral trade has continued to surge since 2006 as the nuclear-armed North underwent several rounds of international sanctions after test-firings of missiles and conducting underground nuclear tests twice.
In 2010, South Korea severed trade with the North after the communist country sank the South Korean ship Cheonan and launched artillery attacks on Yeonpyeong Island near the maritime border in the West Sea in March and November.
Coupled with the suspension of Mt. Geumgang tourism project in July 2008 after a South Korean tourist was shot dead near the resort area, the severance dealt a blow to the impoverished nation.
Sources of hard cash almost dried up.
Choi predicted Sino-North Korea trade will continue to soar in the post-Kim Jong-il era, warning this will allow China, North Korea’s decades-long benefactor, to exert greater influence on its neighbor.
President Lee Myung-bak’s three-day visit to China, which started from Monday, came within a month after the death of the “Dear Leader.”
A question arises whether Sino-North Korea relations will benefit South Korea or not.
During the summit with President Hu Jintao, Lee appreciated China for its effort to convince North Korea to believe that opening up of the country is the key to its survival in the future.
Earlier, Lee urged North Korea to follow a China-style reform.
Drew Thompson, a former director of China Studies at the Washington-based think tank, wrote in a report in 2010 that there are hundreds of small-scale Chinese investments near the China-North Korea border region.
“Investment in China’s northeast and the handful of small-scale Chinese investments in North Korea reveal an array of Chinese actors with a common strategy to position themselves for a future opening of North Korea,” he said.
South Korea and China share a common interest when it comes to the opening up of the North Korean economy.
If the economy takes off through successful reform efforts, optimists say, it will be easier for the nuclear-armed country to denuclearize.
Analysts say North Korea’s possession and development of nuclear weapons is a combined result of its concerns about its security, a national prestige element with its nuclear status and possible use as a bargaining chip in nuclear talks.
As an economic reason is part of its motives to seek nuclear weapons, they conclude, the North would find it easier to seek denuclearization if the economy goes prosper through economic reforms.
But some are skeptical about the role of China in improving inter-Korean relations. They say China would manage Sino-North Korea relations in a manner to prevent a unified Korea.
China wants North Korea to be a buffer state that keeps U.S. troops currently stationed in South Korea at a distance, instead of facing it at the border after a unified Korea.
Park Chul-un, a former Cabinet minister who served as South Korea’s secret point man on North Korea during the former Roh Tae-woo government (1988-1992), said South Korea would be negatively affected by deepening Sino-North Korea ties.
He said South Korea will find it very challenging to deal with North Korea if the North relies heavily on China for commodities and food.
“China had difficulties to deal with North Korea when the late Kim Jong-il controlled the country as he was skillful. The elder Kim tried to take advantage of China’s concerns about instability on the Korean Peninsula,” he said.
“The late Kim was behind the North’s nuclear tests and test-firings of missiles, which irritated China. At the same time, he showed willingness to strengthen economic ties with the neighbor. This was part of his tactic to make the most of China.”
According to him, Kim Jong-un, the North’s new leader, is young and inexperienced and this will make it easier for China to deal with the younger Kim to fulfill China’s interests.