By Kim Young-jin
With momentum building toward a resumption of multilateral talks on North Korea’s nuclear program, regional players should also use the opportunity to address another major concern ― its expanding missile threat, analysts said Tuesday.
Experts point to a steady maturation in Pyongyang’s research, development and capability to produce ballistic missiles ― as well as proliferation activities ― in calling for the difficult issue to be taken up if the six-party denuclearization forum resumes.
“If we ever get back to nuclear talks, we’re going to start raising the missile issue very quickly,” said Joel Wit, a former U.S. negotiator and noted North Korea expert, during a forum organized by the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul, adding progress was “possible but it’s still going to be complicated and difficult.”
The assessment comes amid a spate of diplomacy to revive the long-stalled talks that seek to end Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program in exchange for political and economic incentives. Analysts say the North’s simultaneous development of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) has upped the ante for the resumption of talks.
The Stalinist state has been developing missiles for decades, producing and selling Scud-type missiles by the late 1980s and later testing its long-range Taepodong missile under the pretext of using it for peaceful space purposes. Last year, former U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates warned the Pyongyang was within five years of being able to strike the continental United States with a nuclear-capable ICBM.
Such an assessment has raised concerns that the North could soon manufacture a nuclear warhead small enough to fit a missile, despite the technical difficulties of the task.
“Obviously, North Korea’s medium and long-range missiles increase regional instability and tension,” Cheon Seong-whun of the Korea Institute for National Unification said, citing the possibility of a regional arms race and growing speculation that Pyongyang’s medium-range missiles could be nuclear-tipped.
Compounding these problems are its proliferation activities that have seen it sell short- and medium-range missiles as well as missile technology and pursue bilateral cooperation with countries such as Iran and Syria in violation of U.N. sanctions.
Wit, who handled the North during the Bill Clinton administration, said parties should use progress made in U.S.-North Korea negotiations in 2000 as a “baseline for strategy” in approaching the issue.
At that time, Washington sought an agreement to halt Pyongyang’s development, production and export of ballistic missiles. In exchange, the United States would have offered food or energy aid and an international community pitch in satellite launch services. Those talks eventually fell through when Clinton left office.
Wit argues that the three-track approach used at the time ― arms limitation, cooperative threat reduction and peaceful space cooperation ― could still be effective today.
With arms limitation and cooperation, Wit said Washington should draw from its experience with the Soviet Union and Russia. On space cooperation, he said “well-developed” cooperative bodies in Asia could potentially provide launch services for potential peaceful activities by the North.
As far as what the region could expect in return, he said, “In the first phase, I think our priority is obvious, that is to stop further development of long-range missiles and the modernization of the regional range threat. Bans on flight tests of over 300 kilometers and a halt of proliferation activities should also be pursued, he added.
But Wit, now a scholar at Johns Hopkins University, warned negotiations should be entered into with a long-term approach, given Pyongyang’s long pursuit of missile technology, saying an extensive prescription of verification and engagement would be necessary.
“If we are looking for irreversible solutions to these problems, then just slapping on a few arms control limits isn’t going to do it. There’s a trade-off between the simple, quick solution and the harder solution that in the long-term may serve us better,” he said.
Pyongyang stormed out of the six-party talks in 2009 in response to international sanctions for its nuclear and missile tests. Seoul and Washington want it to halt its uranium enrichment program and allow for U.N. verification before the negotiations resume.