Poll shows Seoul mayoral race neck-and-neck
By Lee Tae-hoon
With just 10 days remaining before the Oct. 26 Seoul mayoral by-election, the rival candidates are locked in a neck-and-neck race, making it all but impossible to predict who will win, according to a poll Sunday.
In a survey of 800 Seoulites conducted Saturday by the Hankook Ilbo, a sister paper of The Korea Times, 39.2 percent favored independent candidate Park Won-soon, compared with 38.4 percent for Na Kyung-won from the ruling Grand National Party (GNP).
The remaining two choices, independent Bae Il-do and Kim Choong-lib of the Christian Liberal Democratic Party, managed only 0.4 and 0.3 percent, respectively.
The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level.
The poll suggests that the outcome of the election will likely hinge largely on swing voters since 21.7 percent of them answered they were unsure who would better manage the nation’s capital or declined to comment.
Observers say if doctor-turned-software mogul Ahn Cheol-soo rolls up his sleeves to campaign for Park, a large number of undecided voters as well as a considerable number of Na supporters will vote for the human rights lawyer-turned-activist.
Park saw his support rate, which hovered below 5 percent, jump to 50 percent, more than 10 percent ahead of Na, after Ahn announced he would give up his bid to run for Seoul mayor early last month.
Ahn, who has emerged as a leading presidential contender, has a strong influence over both conservative and liberal voters.
Some speculate that Ahn, who has expressed his endorsement for Park, will soon begin to campaign in support of Park as the liberal candidate’s chance of winning the race is waning following the conservatives’ negative campaigning.
The 55-year-old Park, who founded a local charitable foundation, is facing criticism for receiving big donations from large companies, including Japanese carmaker Toyota.
The GNP has also been attacking Park over his alleged pro-North Korea activities and exaggerating his academic background.
"The gap between the rival candidates has noticeably narrowed, as the ruling party has staged an intense offensive, mobilized its organization and mustered support from conservative voters,” said Ahn Il-won, a polling company executive.