By Kim Young-jin
South Korea and the United States should coordinate closer on a range of security and alliance challenges to provide stability during what could be a turbulent 2012, a former South Korean foreign minister said Thursday.
Han Sung-joo, who served as Seoul’s top diplomat from 1993 to 1994, said that North Korea’s growing unconventional warfare threat, budgetary constraints in Washington and the growing clout of China were among challenges needing closer coordination.
His comments come as the region braces for a year of political change as Russia, Taiwan, the United States, and South Korea will all hold presidential elections and China and North Korea also undergo leadership transitions, in addition to the ongoing global economic woes.
“With the threat of a double-dip global economic recession on the horizon, a strong, comprehensive, and future-oriented alliance is needed as the security linchpin for the region,” Han wrote in an essay for U.S.-based think tank Council on Foreign Relations.
It also comes as the allies are enjoying a heyday in their alliance. On Wednesday, with President Lee Myung-bak in Washington, U.S. Congress passed the long-stalled Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA).
Proponents say the deal, which still needs approval here would solidify the alliance by adding strong economic ties to political and military ones.
Still, defending against threats from North Korea, which experts say is increasingly looking to cyber warfare, military provocations and nuclear weapons as part of an asymmetric strategy, calls for greater cooperation, Han warned.
Tensions remain high after the North’s surprise torpedo attack on the warship Cheonan and artillery bombardment of Yeonpyeong Island. It is also believed to have waged a series of cyber attacks on government sites.
“Even though the two governments have closely coordinated their policies toward North Korea in recent years, it is inevitable that one or the other is likely to be more hard-line vis-à-vis North Korea,” he said.
According to diplomats and others who have visited Pyongyang, the regime credits the shelling to heir apparent Kim Jong-un, the youngest son of leader Kim Jong-il, in a bid to boost his military credibility. Some say further attacks are possible during the ongoing succession process.
Consultations were also needed with China, Russia and Japan to bolster understanding on how regional players would react to contingencies in the North, he added.
Budgetary constraints pose another challenge. The U.S. military is planning to cut spending by $450 billion over a decade as part of debt reduction measures.
“This will force both sides to deal with issues of cost-sharing and securing resources for military hardware as well as financing the planned relocation of U.S. troops in Korea,” Han said.
Han believed the “geopolitical challenge” posed by China also needed more attention, saying the allies needed to assuage any apprehension in Beijing over the U.S. role in regional affairs while continuing to urge it to influence changes in North Korea’s behavior.
China is North Korea’s main ally and seen as one of the best channels to apply pressure on Pyongyang. But critics say it is shielding the Kim Jong-il regime from sanctions while providing aid in a bid to prevent instability.
Beijing fears a flood of refugees and an American military presence on it borders in any case of instability in its Stalinist neighbor, analysts say.