By Kim Young-jin
North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s reported offer to impose a moratorium on nuclear and missile tests holds little water and is likely a tactic to win aid, analysts said Friday, explaining the tepid response in Seoul.
A Kremlin official said the proposal was made Wednesday during summit talks between Kim and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. But experts believe it was not taken seriously as Pyongyang could easily walk away from it.
“He could impose it if he wants but turn right around and lift it, saying conditions have been broken,” Daniel Pinkston of the International Crisis Group said, adding that the North had taken such a path before. “It’s positive but not sufficient.”
Kim said he would impose the ban if the six-party talks on Pyongyang’s denuclearization resume without preconditions.
“It would be unthinkable for the North to conduct a test with six-party talks going on,” Choi Jin-wook, an analyst with the Korea Institute for National Unification, said. “If North Korea was serious about this, it would have made the offer to Washington, not Medvedev.”
In 1999, the regime imposed a flight test moratorium on ballistic missiles in a deal to improve relations with Washington, but lifted it and raised tensions further by conducting such a test.
A recent flurry of diplomacy, including rare bilateral contact between the two Koreas, raised hopes over the stalled forum, which fell apart in 2009 when the North walked away in response to international sanctions over its program.
Seoul and Washington quickly shrugged off Kim’s offer, saying it fell short of the concrete steps the allies demand.
The Obama administration went a step further Thursday, dismissing the North's claim that its uranium enrichment program is for peaceful purposes.
To show it is serious about the moratorium, Pyongyang could join the United Nations’ Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty or simply live up to commitments it made in six-party talks, Pinkston said.
The North’s state media reported that Kim and Medvedev agreed on the need to resume the forum at an early date, but Seoul and Washington reacted coolly to Kim’s offer, saying it fell short of its demand for concrete denuclearization steps.
It has yet to mention the reported offer to ban the tests.
Many believe the North is going all out to secure aid in the run-up to 2012, when it has promised to become a powerful nation. Its ability to secure aid could help Kim complete a power transfer to his youngest son, Jong-un amid food shortages there.
Moscow agreed to supply the North with 50,000 tons of grain to cope with severe flooding shortly before Kim began his five-day trip through Siberia that culminated in the summit talks. The North also apparently supported a Russian project to pipe gas through the Korean Peninsula to sell to the South.
“If Kim had any intentions in making the offer, it was probably a gift to Russia for the aid and long-term economic projects,” Choi said.
Hopes over the resumption of the denuclearization-for-aid forum have been high since the two Koreas held rare bilateral talks in Bali last month, in a surprise move that eased tensions. Seoul wants Pyongyang to halt all its nuclear activities and allow U.N. inspectors to verify the suspension before talks resume.
Doubt has also been expressed on the gas pipeline, saying Pyongyang could easily use it as leverage over the South.