By Kim Young-jin
North and South Korea will hold rare talks today to discuss a dispute involving seized South Korean assets at Mt. Geumgang in North Korea. But with the sides standing poles apart in their fundamental approaches, prospects remain murky at best, analysts say.
The meeting comes after a similar one last month fell apart over procedural differences.
Reflecting the tensions that have gripped the peninsula over the last year, the talks are expected to focus on the handling of the property, not resuming joint tours to the resort, once a symbol of reconciliation.
“I don’t expect any breakthrough given the current impasse in relations,” Park Young-ho, a senior fellow with the Korea Institute for National Unification said.
He said Pyongyang may “tacitly” want to resume the tours despite its recent fiery rhetoric. But if Seoul allows such a desire to be considered in its policy, it would set itself up for political fallout at home.
The North recently threatened to dispose of assets owned by South Korean firms at the scenic resort unless company officials visited today with plans on how to handle their property.
Seoul, which counter-proposed today’s government-level talks, says it “plans to ascertain North Korea’s position” regarding the property as well as the stalled joint tourism project.
Observers say that given the North’s recent unilateral moves over the resort, the sides are likely to continue butting heads until it becomes far more desperate for cash. That prospect, however, is diminishing as Pyongyang strengthens ties with its major ally China.
Such moves breach inter-Korean agreements and those between Pyongyang and firms, officials say, prompting Seoul to mull taking the issue to an international body such as the U.N. if the North disposes of the property.
Still, Park said both sides have reasons to head to the table.
“The North needs to cautiously move ahead toward possible resumption of dialogue. The South needs to consider the overall international environment including the United States and other surrounding powers.” he said.
Regional players agree that the two Koreas should warm ties ahead of any resumption of multilateral denuclearization talks, which Pyongyang apparently wants to rejoin spurred by its food shortages.
The lucrative program came to a halt in 2008 when a South Korean tourist was shot dead after apparently straying out of the resort area. Seoul wants an apology for the incident and security guarantees before the reconciliatory project is resumed. Pyongyang insists it has done all it can to address these concerns.
The North has been pressuring Seoul to resume tours to the resort in a bid to buoy its economy, hobbled by international sanctions. In frustration, it seized or froze several South Korea-owned properties last year, and last month passed a law to develop the site as a special zone for international tours.
Relations remain tense between the sides since the North last month threatened to never deal with the Lee Myung-bak administration again, after refusing to apologize for two deadly attacks on the South last year.