By Kim Young-jin
North Korea test-fired a short-range missile last week off its west coast, but it did not appear linked to recent fiery rhetoric emanating from Pyongyang, an official said Wednesday.
“We observed that the North fired a short-range missile into waters off its west coast in the middle of last week,” an official of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said on condition of anonymity. “It was not related to the North’s recent threats, but aimed at improving its missiles.”
The firing came amid a salvo of rhetoric from Pyongyang, which pronounced it would never deal with the Lee Myung-bak administration, disclosed alleged details about a secret meeting between the sides and threatened military action last week.
The North has been firing short-range missiles this year to test modifications, the official said. Other sources said the test involved a KN-06 short-range missile, which Pyongyang has reportedly been developing for years.
The rhetoric shut down almost all hope of inter-Korean reconciliation as a path to reopen stalled multilateral negotiations. It also raised concerns the North would return to its provocative mood of last year, which saw it sink a South Korean warship and shell Yeonpyeong Island, killing 50 people.
It has also threatened action in response to South Korean NGOs that fly balloons with anti-regime information across the border, as well as reports that the military had used images of the ruling Kim Jong-il family for target practice.
Watchers said despite the bluster, the chances of an imminent attack remained low.
“If the North wants to be very provocative again, it would have to gear up something more than the Yeonpyeong or Cheonan incidents,” Bahng Tae-seop of the Samsung Economic Research Institute said. “Otherwise, it would be meaningless.”
Bahng said its growing reliance on key ally China offset any chances of further military action in the short-term.
The North announced Tuesday it would open a new economic zone on the border with China to “boost friendship with China and expand and develop external economic relations.”
On Monday, the politburo of the ruling Worker’s Party held a rare “extended meeting” in which it decided to bolster ties with Beijing "through the generations," according to the North's state media. This was seen as a reference to sustaining ties as the North passes power to Kim’s youngest son, Jong-un.
Many analysts believe last year’s attacks were driven mostly by internal factors such as shoring up military support for the inexperienced heir at a time when his father’s health appeared shaky ― factors that appear less pressing now.
“I think the chances (of an attack) are less than what many are saying,” Daniel Pinkston of the International Crisis Group said.
He warned, however, that the situation remained unpredictable. “In the inter-Korean dimension, the North is displeased, and so there is the possibility,” he said.