By Na Jeong-ju
One of the purported purposes of President Lee Myung-bak’s scheduled visit to Russia is to deepen Seoul’s strategic partnership and economic relations with the nation.
However, there is one underlying question: Will Russia share details of its own investigation into the sinking of the South Korean naval vessel Cheonan last March?
If it does, the implications of the revelation will be huge although little will likely be made public about Lee’s talks with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on Sept. 10 over the incident, in which 46 sailors died.
Seoul’s conclusion that the ship sinking was the result of a torpedo attack by a North Korean submarine could be challenged again.
According to some newspapers critical of the Lee administration, Moscow, a neutral ally of Pyongyang, concluded that it is more likely a mine rather than a torpedo that caused the ship to sink.
Russia also believes that the Cheonan had hit the seabed prior to the explosion and apparently had become entangled in a fishnet, which could have dredged up the mine that then blew it up, the reports say, suggesting the South Korean military might have manipulated evidence to back their conclusion.
The Russian government has neither confirmed nor denied the media reports. Seoul says it has never received any official probe results from Moscow regarding their version of the exact cause of the explosion.
Some observers here say Russia is using the case as leverage to increase its influence on regional security issues.
“Russia hasn’t made public the result of its own investigation. It is unlikely to do so either in the near future,” a diplomatic source said.
“Many Seoul officials feel embarrassed by the fact that the Russian interpretation of the incident was reported in certain South Korean newspapers. There might be an underlying motive.”
The official suspected that Russia, whose influence on North Korea has weakened significantly amid the North’s growing dependence on China, wants to play a more proactive role in addressing issues related to the Korean Peninsula, such as Pyongyang’s nuclear program.
Donald Gregg, who was U.S. ambassador to Korea from 1989 to 1993, said in an article in the New York Times, published on Monday, that when he asked a well-placed Russian friend why the report has not been released, he replied, “Because it would do much political damage to President Lee and would embarrass President Barack Obama.”
Russia and China, permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, opposed a Seoul-proposed U.N. resolution laying blame on North Korea.
Some analysts say the Cheonan incident may remain a hurdle in resuming dialogue between the two Koreas. However, Seoul’s bid to link the case to the resumption of the stalled six-party denuclearization talks is unlikely to succeed as long as the two sides remain sharply divided over what exactly happened to the Navy frigate.
“The Obama administration’s policy of strategic patience on North Korea appears to have a long-term goal of denuclearizing the communist country through the six-party process,” Lee Sang-hyun, an analyst of the Sejong Institute, said at a security forum in Seoul Wednesday.
“China and Russia also don’t want the tensions on the peninsula to grow further. Seoul could find itself in an embarrassing position if it keeps its hard-line policy toward Pyongyang.”
President Lee’s aides said North Korea will be on top of the agenda at the planned summit with Medvedev in Yaroslavl, located 250 kilometers northeast of Moscow.
As a participant of a political forum to be held there, Lee will give a keynote speech on Korea’s economic growth and transition to a democratic society.