By Kang Hyun-kyung
The grooming of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s third son, Jong-un, as a successor is underway at a bad time with the North facing toughened sanctions and as the elder Kim’s health continues to deteriorate.
Daniel Pinkston suspects that the hostile environment surrounding power succession may motivate Kim to find methods to bolster his son’s leadership credentials, including a possible nuclear test.
“As for a third nuclear test, three variables have to line up for the leadership to give the order. One of them is whether Kim Jong-il believes a test would help solidify his succession plans,” Pinkston, Northeast Asia Project director of the International Crisis Group, said in an interview with The Korea Times, Monday.
The remaining two variables, the security expert pointed out, were technical considerations, for instance if they are prepared for another nuclear test, and the underlying driving force of why they’re pursuing a nuclear program.
“If they believe they need a nuclear deterrent for survival and they have decided to follow Pakistan’s example, Kim Jong-il might feel it’s a good time to test and get it over with so they can begin riding out the period of condemnation and sanctions until the international community accepts their nuclear status,” Pinkston said.
His remarks came days after U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates voiced concerns over the prospects for possible fresh provocations until the succession process is completed.
“We’re very concerned that (the sinking of the warship Cheonan) may not be the only provocation from the North Koreans,” he was quoted as saying.
Back in 1987, Kim Jong-il attempted to prove himself as leadership material by ordering North Korean agents to blow up the South Korean airliner KAL 858 that killed all 115 passengers and flight crew on board.
North Korea observer Marcus Noland said in May that “the elder Kim blew up an airliner and his son sank a ship” in an effort to prove themselves as real men.
“The younger Kim doesn’t have any military credentials. He doesn’t have any nationalistic credentials. And to use a kind of gangster language, this (torpedoing the Cheonan) could have been a way for Kim Jong-un to make his bones,” Noland said.
This week, North Korea watchers predicted a stormy response from Pyongyang after President Lee Myung-bak proposed the adoption of a unification tax to buffer against the enormous economic cost of unification in a Liberation Day speech, Sunday.
Many believe that the premise of the special tax is that the North may collapse all of a sudden as did the Berlin Wall in 1989 that suddenly unified Germany, which had been divided into East and West.
Toughened sanctions are more bad news for the North where the growing influence of those who make ends meet through market activities has reportedly become a headache for the leadership in the wake of failed currency reform.
Washington is scheduled to unveil a list of North Korean entities and individuals having been involved in crime-for-profit activities later this month.
Pinkston said that at some point North Korean media will criticize the sanctions in very strong language.
“While it is impossible to predict exactly how North Korea will react, I don’t expect the North to be in a cooperative mood,” he said.
After measures were previewed by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in July, North Korea made it clear in a series of statements that it may go for a third nuclear test.
The North warned that sticks will not correct its bad behavior, saying this would convince it to strengthen its nuclear deterrent.