By Lee Tae-hoon
Staff reporter
A state-run think tank Friday forecast a rosy outlook for 2040, saying the country's per capita income is expected to reach $60,000 and emerge as the world's 10th largest economy in the next three decades.
Korea's per capita income was $19,761 in 2009, according to the Korea Development Institute (KDI).
"The size of Korea's economy, which was ranked 12th in the world, will grow to become the 10th largest," KDI President Oh Seok-hyun said in a meeting at Cheong Wa Dae, presided over by President Lee Myung-bak. "Also its per capita gross domestic product (GNP) will increase to $60,000, or the 23rd highest in the world."
Oh noted that a decrease in population in Korea, which will result in an aging society, will negatively impact the economy, but this can be overcome through increased productivity and by opening the job market to talented immigrants.
"The long-term prospects for Korea's economy will be bright once it secures new momentum to boost productivity, which can be achieved through renovation, integration and opening up markets," Oh said. "And this will help us increase economic size and earnings."
He said Korea's GDP could even grow an annual average of 3.5 percent, 0.6 percentage points higher than predicted, if the country was able to successfully attract foreign talent and boost the participation of women in the workforce.
Oh also noted that the social expenditure to GDP ratio is expected to jump from 8.9 percent in 2013 to 17.7 percent in 2040.
During the meeting, Park Yang-ho, president of the Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements, forecast that the number of foreigners here will increase more than three times, reaching roughly 3.5 million by 2040.
He said the number of skilled migrants will noticeably increase thanks to the recent revision in the law which will grant dual citizenship to foreigners with outstanding talents and those meeting certain conditions from next year.
The government pushed the revision as part of efforts to prevent a brain drain and bring in talented foreigners.
Park said the whole country will become a free international economic zone, without tariffs or any language barriers in three decades.