North Korea Pursues Indian Nuclear Model
By Kang Hyun-kyung
Staff Reporter
North Korea is not ready to give up its nuclear ambition, nor the desire to improve its relations with the United States at least until the ongoing succession of power is completed, a security expert said Tuesday.
"Like India and Pakistan, North Korea will try to get recognition as a nuclear power and improve its relations with the U.S. through direct talks within the six-party talks," said Professor Yun Duk-min of the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security.
India and Pakistan are nuclear states remaining outside the Treaty on Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).
Five countries that tested nuclear devices before 1967 ― the U.S., France, Britain, Russia and China ― are called nuclear states under the NPT.
During a seminar hosted by the governing Grand National Party's (GNP) think tank, Yun forecast the North was likely to return to the multilateral talks early this year.
The think tank invited North Korea watchers and security experts to the event to look into policy options and national strategy for South Korea to cope with the North.
The GNP defined the time period from the present to 2012 as a security turning point on the peninsula with the declining health of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il and the power transition to the next leader Kim Jong-un.
"The North announced to seek to repair the planned economy, which has been off the rails since 1989 due to its poor management and security threats made to the international community," said Yun.
"It also plans to focus on improving the living standards of its citizens and facilitating the succession of power to the next leader."
The professor predicted the demanding tasks of becoming a nuclear power and better relations with Washington will require the reclusive nation to go for dialogue, rather than scare tactics.
Earlier, Washington made it clear that it wouldn't accept the North as a nuclear power.
Professor Ryoo Kihl-jae of the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul shared the view that the North is unlikely to give up its nuclear programs in the near future.
"The worst case scenario for South Korea is that internal chaos and the North's angry citizens play a role in collapsing North Korea, while it still possesses nuclear bombs," he said.
"This scenario is unlikely to occur in the short run, but it is highly likely to happen in the medium range forecast."
After the Cold War, the North Korean economy became even worse due to poor management, floods, and reduced assistance from the international community after it test-fired missiles and conducted underground nuclear tests, leading millions to starve.
Economic hardship made it even more difficult for North Korean residents to lead normal lives after the failed currency reform last year resulted in severe inflation and social instability.
The question is if the social chaos will lead to an uprising.
"The citizens will stand up against the repressive regime when power elites are in conflict and the morale of security forces hit a low. If the regime manages to control the elites and security forces, it will be difficult to expect an uprising there," said Ryoo.