By Kang Hyun-kyung
Staff Reporter
The score sheet of the Oct. 28 by-elections will have a direct impact on the governing Grand National Party (GNP) leader, mainly because his power base inside the party is weaker than his predecessors, campaign watchers said Sunday.
With the elections being just around the corner, political analysts have begun to speculate on the outcomes.
Polls found that candidates of the ruling party are ahead of their counterparts in the main opposition Democratic Party (DP) in three districts - Gangneung in Gangwon Province; Jangan in Suwon, Gyeonggi Province; and Yangsan in South Gyeongsang Province.
DP candidates are leading in Jeungpyeong-Jincheon in North Chungcheong Province and Ansan in Gyeonggi Province, according to the surveys.
President Lee Myung-bak's rising popularity has helped the ruling GNP gain the upper hand in the campaigns so far, political analysts said.
Recent polls showed that Lee's approval ratings are above 50 percent, indicating that his measures to aid blue-collar workers and low-income families have raised his popularity.
Despite the results, pollsters say it is too early to conclude which party will gain more seats in the elections as the campaign environment tends to be apt to change.
GNP Chairman Chung Mong-joon ascended to power in September after his predecessor Park Hee-tae resigned in order to run in the election in Yangsan, South Gyeongsang Province.
Compared with his predecessors, Chung's influence in the ruling party has appeared to be limited for a few reasons.
First and foremost, he was not elected but simply succeeded Park as chairman.
Last week, floor leader Ahn Sang-soo called for the convening of a leadership competition earlier than the one scheduled for next July.
Ahn's remark signaled that there are dissidents who think that with Chung remaining in power until then is not desirable because he was not picked as chairman by GNP delegates.
Chung, who joined the ruling party in 2007, had few followers in the conservative party, where two factions ― supporters of President Lee Myung-bak and followers of former GNP Chairwoman Park Geun-hye ― clash over major agendas.
Political analysts point out that Chung's "unfettered" style has led some lawmakers to feel discontented.
The GNP chairman has often expressed his own views over major issues such as humanitarian assistance to North Korea rather than stick with the party's official position.
In a recent speech to GNP lawmakers, Chung called for overhauling the selection process of candidates to run in major elections from the current top-down approach to a bottom-up one.
Currently, a handful of leaders have a greater say in the selection of candidates. Chung said grassroots delegates' voices should be heard in the process, and this will require the party to reform the closed system.
If the GNP fails to gain more parliamentary seats than the DP in the by-elections, political analysts say hardliners may ask Chairman Chung to step down before next July.