Chinas Staunch Ties With N. Korea Eroding
By Sunny Lee
Korea Times Correspondent
BEIJING ― ``Telephone conversation between China and North Korea before the nuclear test disclosed.'' That's the title of a new joke widely circulating on the Chinese Internet.
It goes:
North Korea: Big brother, I need to conduct a nuclear test.
China: Okay. I see. When?
North Korea: 10.
China: 10? What's that? 10 days or 10 hours?
North Korea: 9, 8, 7 …
China: You b*****d!
In the aftermath of North Korea's defiant nuclear test, China's attitude toward its staunch ideological ally is showing signs of erosion. Chinese experts on North Korea, who normally voice their opinions within the boundary of Chinese policies, have been given leeway to be unusually critical of Pyongyang this time in their views on the North in various publications. The best-selling Global Times recently even called on the Chinese government to ``review'' its North Korea policy.
Although China and North Korea have been ``blood brothers'' since the Korean War (1950-53) ― in which former Chinese leader Mao Zedong's son was killed and later buried in North Korean territory ― and China granted North Korea the highest diplomatic relationship level, the ``traditionally friendly relationship,'' is now changing.
``The Chinese are clearly frustrated,'' said Drew Thompson, an expert on China-North Korea relations at the Nixon Center in Washington. ``This creates the possibility that China can take a new approach to North Korea.''
The Chinese government's posture on the North's nuclear test was unambiguous. In an unusually sharp statement, it said it is ``firmly opposed'' to the act and warned it against ``further worsening the situation.'' Citing a Chinese diplomatic source, South Korea's Yonhap News also said China was ``outraged'' about the nuclear test.
But will this signal a fundamental change of China's foreign policy? Thompson is cautious. ``I am not sure how 'fundamentally' changed the relationship will be.
``The two nations still have significant mutual dependence including a commercial relationship and some shared security interests,'' he said. ``However, it is increasingly possible that North Korea can no longer count on China's unconditional backing.''
Some scholars viewed the nuclear test was as a ``watershed moment'' for China to favor South Korea over the North.
As a telling sign, the official Xinhua News Agency said Chinese Defense Minister Liang Guanglie told his South Korean counterpart Lee Sang-hee on May 26 in Beijing that China was willing to work with South Korea to strengthen pragmatic exchanges and cooperation, and to deepen military ties in an ``all-round way.''
The relationship between Seoul and Beijing has developed very quickly since diplomatic relations between the two were established in 1992.
``China today has more in common with South Korea than it does with North Korea,'' Thompson said. But he disagrees with the view that China's approach to the two Koreas can be characterized in terms of one being favored with the other disfavored. ``I do not think that China looks at its relations with North and South Korea that way. It doesn't calculate how it favors one over the other.
``It might be simplistic to think that this second nuclear test will result in China favoring South Korea over the North. But certainly, the test damaged China-North Korea relations,'' he said.
The issue, Thompson said, is whether Beijing comes to consider Seoul's security as more important than before, and whether it sees a direct security threat from North Korean proliferation.
Unless those conditions are met, China's response to North Korean provocations will be ``moderate,'' he said.
China on Korea Reunification
With the shifting of Chinese policy on North Korea, scholars also debate how that would have any impact, if any, on China's approach to the reunification of the two Koreas.
China has been openly saying that it supports peaceful reunification. However, some scholars outside China expressed some reservation on the statement, saying Chinese strategic interests want it to maintain the status quo as Beijing has some major concerns.
Beijing fears that a reunified Korea may become more nationalistic and may ``reclaim'' the northeastern Yanbian Korean Autonomous region that currently borders North Korea.
A case in point is Yanji, a city in Yanbian, where many ethnic Koreans live. Currently, many South Korean business establishments are based there, expanding the ``Korean atmosphere'' in the region, drawing suspicions from the Chinese authorities. Some Christian aid groups there also help North Korean refugees, a very sensitive issue for China.
Thompson recently made a trip there and noted that both China and South Korea need to see opportunities for building mutual trust there.
``South Korea would need to be cognizant of Chinese sensitivity on the region. It, for example, should inventory its development assistance programs to China and seek opportunities that benefit Yanbian, clearly laying out project objectives to the Chinese side.''
China also worries about the possibility of having the U.S. military forces right across its border in a unified Korea in the absence of North Korea, which currently serves as a ``buffer.''
``The issue is that China's vision of a unified Korean Peninsula might not comport with the aspirations of many in South Korea,'' Thompson said. For example, China does not want a unified Korea that is hostile to it, or too friendly to the United States or Japan, or a potential ``beachhead'' for foreign forces that might march into northeastern China, he said.
The key, he said, is to construct a shared vision of a unified Korea that satisfies the needs and desires of all Koreans and does not threaten China's security. Although China supports peaceful reunification of the two Koreas, ``until there is a shared vision of a paradigm of one Korea, China prefers the current status quo.''
