By Kang Hyun-kyung
Staff Reporter
North Korean leader Kim Jong-il has a genuine will to take the Gaeseong Industrial Complex to the next level to help the impoverished country move toward a market economy similar to China and Vietnam, North Korea watchers claimed Monday.
They hinted that the North will not make a hasty decision to shut down the site because the Stalinist country saw the inter-Korean collaboration project as a monumental initiative that can facilitate its economy's take-off.
Columbia University Professor Charles K. Armstrong forecast that even if North Korea shuts down the industrial site in the near future, it would only be a temporary suspension.
In an e-mail interview with The Korea Times, Armstrong said, ``If North Korea were to shut down the complex, the greatest loss would be to the North itself, which would forego the revenue and experience it needs to modernize its economy.''
The Korea expert called the Gaeseong project ``the most important and visible link between the South and North Korean economies and perhaps the most important success in more than 30 years of inter-Korean cooperation.''
``Gaeseong employs many North Korean workers, brings people of the North and South together on a day-to-day working basis, is easily accessible to the South, and brings needed revenue and outside contact to the North,'' he said.
A high-ranking Chinese official was quoted by Rep. Chung Mong-joon of the governing Grand National Party (GNP) as expressing a similar view.
According to Chung, the Chinese official was skeptical about the North achieving prosperity through economic reform on its own, unlike its communist allies China and Vietnam.
``He noted the only way that North Korea can be a successful transition economy is to have two or three more projects just like Gaeseong,'' Chung said.
Armstrong agreed, saying, ``The best way to integrate the two sides of Korea and improve North Korea's economic conditions is to have projects like Gaeseong.''
Rep. Chung Dong-young, a former unification minister, predicted that if the project does prosper enough to feed North Koreans, the North will no longer need to benchmark China.
``The North Korean economy will be on the right track if the tailored collaboration project, where South Korea's capital and technology meet the North's cheap labor, yields growth,'' he insisted.
The former unification minister introduced a lesser-known story that appeared to prove the North Korean leader's painstaking efforts to make the Gaeseong project a reality back in 2002.
The North's military expressed staunch opposition to the plan to open the military city of Gaeseong, which has an array of major installations and facilities, to South Korea and the world for security reasons.
North Korean leader Kim reportedly spent two years convincing military hardliners to look beyond the shortsighted security loss.
Chung also made public a private conversation between Kim and the late South Korean business tycoon Chung Ju-yung, the founder of Hyundai Group, in an effort to help people understand Kim's aspiration to make the joint economic enclave project work.
The late Hyundai owner asked how the North Korean leader would deal with the possible labor shortages after the enclave was set in place.
Approximately 300,000 workers would be needed, but the combined population in Gaeseong and its vicinity fell short of the figure.
Kim answered that he was prepared to ``allow some of the 1.1 million North Korean military personnel to have a career change to industrial workers if the project does prosper.''
``The two incidents indicate peace would come on the Korean Peninsula when the North Korean economy gets on the right track,'' said Chung.