By Kim Sue-young
Staff Reporter
North Korea will likely threaten to shut down a joint industrial complex in Gaeseong during inter-Korean talks today in a bid to thwart South Korea's plan to fully participate in an international arms surveillance initiative, an analyst said Monday.
Professor Yang Moo-jin of the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul also said that Pyongyang may also threaten to sever inter-Korean ties completely in the worst-case scenario.
The meeting represents the first government-level talks since the inauguration of President Lee Myung-bak's administration in February last year.
A South Korean delegation, led by Kim Young-tak, director general of the Gaeseong Industrial Complex Project Bureau at the Ministry of Unification, will cross the border at around 9 a.m. for the meeting, ministry spokesman Kim Ho-nyoun said.
President Lee convened an unscheduled meeting of security-related ministers Monday to discuss preparations for the talks, an official said on condition of anonymity.
``The North claimed that Seoul's participation in the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) would be a declaration of a war against its regime. Thus, I cannot rule out the possibility of the North closing down the complex and cutting off the relations,'' Yang told The Korea Times.
``A similar pattern of Pyongyang's measure on Dec. 1 might be seen ― finding an excuse, issuing warnings, proposing talks and notifying us of its actions,'' he said.
The Stalinist state restricted border crossings last December after conservative civic groups sent tens of thousands of fliers containing criticism of Kim Jong-il and calling for the repatriation of abductees from the North.
Pyongyang proposed working-level military talks before the restrictions just to renew a warning that it could shut down the industrial park.
This time, the North has consistently taken issue with Seoul's joining of the U.S.-led initiative to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and threatened that full participation would cause it ``to make an important decision.''
The issue of a South Korean detainee in the complex may also be on the negotiating table, Yang said.
The North could warn that it will punish the worker, in his 40s, who was arrested late last month for criticizing North Korea's political system and enticing a North Korean female worker to flee the state, he said.
It has refused to allow the detainee to meet with South Korean officials and to gain help from lawyers despite repeated calls from the Seoul government.
As an additional retaliatory measure, Yang said, ``Pyongyang may nullify an inter-Korean agreement on maritime affairs and the Northern Limit Line (NLL).''
The maritime agreement, signed in August 2005, stipulated that the two Koreas would open their ports to each other.
Tensions have mounted on the Korean Peninsula since the North's launch of a long-range rocket April 5 leading to condemnation by the U.N. Security Council.
The North expelled International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors from its nuclear facilities last week.