By Sunny Lee
Korea Times Correspondent
BEIJING ― While the domestic and some world media outlets are busy piecing together the puzzle of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's new heir-apparent, Chinese scholars remain careful in not jumping into the same game.
Citing well-informed and multiple intelligence sources, Yonhap news agency last week said Kim Jong-il designated his third son, Jong-un, as his successor, and delivered a directive on the designation to the Workers' Party leadership.
``Yes, I read the news report,'' said Shen Dingli, executive dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai. "Better not to believe it. For the last 15 years, there has been so much such speculation, none of which has been confirmed."
That's a no-frills invalidation of the latest news about North Korea's secretive royal family from the South Korean news outlet.
The media buzz over Kim Jong-il's family business is understandable because the heir confirmation is an important political event that will change the contour of North Korea's power topography and the regional political landscape.
Since the report, South Korean analysts have been primarily focusing on the relatively unknown, mysterious heir-apparent. Not a single picture of him is available and news coverage of his age varies from 24 years to 26 years.
However, just like Shen, Zhu Feng, a security expert at Peking University, remains a skeptic as well. "I don't think the North Korean leader is likely to have made the decision yet," he said, adding, "There has been barely any political apprenticeship of a third son so far." The current leader was groomed for nearly 20 years by his father, the late Kim Il-sung, during which time the junior Kim gradually mastered the art of leadership and solidified his political clout, gaining exposure to different posts in North Korea's government. In contrast, the more recently alleged heir has yet to make his debut into the North Korean political landscape.
Another factor cited by Zhu, is that Kim Jong-il seems to have recovered well enough to carry out his schedule. "These days, he exposes himself a lot to the media, visiting different places. This may be a smoke screen. But North Korea is clearly trying to convey the idea to its people that Kim is healthy and still in power. So, announcing someone who will replace Kim at this particular time would not be an intelligent move. Considering all this, one comes to the conclusion that the news report is unsubstantiated," Zhu said.
Early this week, Yonhap also reported that China would actually prefer Kim Jong-il's first son, Jong-nam, as the heir. "He has an apartment in Beijing and visits China often," Yonhap cited a well-informed source as saying, adding that China favors someone who understands China well.
Zhu, however, said China doesn't have any preference. "Firstly, we don't know which son would be preferable. Secondly, we oppose dynasties. Thirdly, the leadership change actually might add more uncertainty in the future."
His last comment reflects the view that if someone less charismatic and powerful than Kim Jong-il were in charge of the country and lacked sufficient political clout, things could actually become more unstable, leading to a bloody power struggle.
According to a knowledgeable source, "Pyongyang carefully studied the painful lesson of the Soviet case," which it sees as having been brought about because it failed to solve the successor issue correctly.
Meanwhile, Grand National Party lawmaker Lee Chul-woo, who heads the parliament's intelligence committee, told the PBC Radio Monday that Kim Jong-il's decision on his successor is "a matter that will still take some time."