By Bae Ji-sook
Staff Reporter
If economy-birth rate correlations are correct, Korea will see one of its lowest birthrates this year, a state-funded research agency said Thursday.
A two percent growth will drop the birthrate to 1.08 in 2010, which means 100 fertile women aged between 15 and 49 would give birth to 108 babies, according to the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs.
A one percent growth should make the birthrate fall to as low as 0.85. But the birthrate is expected to fall further as many economists predict the economy may contract this year.
``A weaker growth rate will make people more reluctant to give birth to babies for fear of a heavier burden and costs,'' said Lee Sam-shik, researcher at the institute.
Major economic institutes have projected the nation's growth rate to be below two percent for this year. Korea Institute of Finance expects 1.7 percent and LG Economic Research Institute 1.8 percent.
Only 473,205 babies were born in 2008, 23,505 fewer than 2007, with the birthrate falling to 1.20 from 1.26.
The institute said such a downfall pattern is similar to that of 1997, when the Asian financial crisis swept the nation. When it first broke in 1997, the rate marked 1.54 but fell to 1.47 the next year. It stood at 1.08 in 2005.
The institute warned that another shock stemming from economic difficulties could fundamentally change young peoples' perception of childbirth.
``According to a survey in 2007 of 379 women, 17.4 percent said the economy has affected their birth control,'' Lee said. ``Society should draw out a plan to prevent young people from marrying late and delaying having children because of such economic conditions. It seems quite evident that the birthrate will go well below the level seen during the Asian financial crisis 11 years ago,'' he added.
In addition, the state campaign to boost the birth rate has not been as effective as planned. According to the institute's survey of 1,729 families containing children, 81.6 percent said the government's ``benefits'' to children did not affect family planning.
Currently, the Ministry for Health Welfare and Family Affairs gives out extra credit for the National Pension and vouchers for child health examinations, arranges diet menus for mothers and children and many other fringe benefits.
The research team suggested that traditional paternalistic lifestyle of the father being bread earner and the mother rearing the children could encourage more childbirth. Park Jong-seo, another researcher of the team, said, ``Paternalism stresses the importance of parent-child relations. But, somehow, the old style seems to be working to raise perception toward childbirth,'' he said.