By Sunny Lee
Korea Times Correspondent
BEIJING ― The idea of having a discussion among concerned countries about the post-Kim Jong-il era has been a sensitive proposal, as some policy makers fear it could provoke anger from the irascible Pyongyang government. Nonetheless, a well-known global security expert said it's time to have one.
Susan Shirk, who served under the Clinton administration as deputy assistant secretary of state, told The Korea Times during an interview in Beijing: ``There are now a lot of questions on the domestic situation in North Korea. China, along with South Korea and the United States, don't want to see a violent collapse of the North Korean government. So, I think it's really important for all of these countries to have some discussions ahead of time about different scenarios to make sure there is no misunderstanding afterwards.''
Shirk, now director of the University of California system-wide Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation and professor of political science, said that one question to be addressed is whether South Korea is discussing this issue with China.
``South Korea and China have a very active diplomacy, including military contacts. So, it would be good for them to talk about it.''
There have been news reports from some Western news outlets about China's increasing military build-up along its border with North Korea for fear of a deluge of North Korean refugees in case the latter collapses.
She warns against hastily interpreting the situation. ``I wouldn't give too much significance on the build-up along the border because that has been actually happening over time,'' she said.
Yet she added, ``But I am sure China is paying close attention to the North Korean situation.'' Shirk noted that China also wants a stable situation on the Korean peninsula. ``China wants a North Korean government it could work with, just like it does with all the other nations.''
Internally, the U.S. government has been talking about a post-Kim North Korea scenario since the mid-1990s, according to Shirk. However, it didn't do so with the Chinese government. ``At least not during the time I was serving in the Clinton administration. I don't know what has happened since. I hope it is. It's because we don't want any misunderstanding.''
Ironically, China has been reportedly refusing to discuss the matter with the U.S. for the same reason; it doesn't want any ``misunderstanding'' by North Korea.
The Wall Street Journal recently carried a report that China rejected a U.S. proposal to discuss the situation, which analysts believe is because China doesn't want to give the wrong impression to its close ideological ally, North Korea, that it is ``conspiring'' with the U.S. to prepare for the country's collapse.
Regarding the North Korean nuclear program, she said, ``I especially worry if there is any political uncertainty for the future of North Korea domestically amid Kim Jong-il's health. If so, North Koreans will think a tougher line would be safer.''
She added: ``That's not a good situation in trying to get an international agreement.''
A ``hard landing'' in North Korea is in nobody's best interests in this interconnected, globalized world, according to Shirk. ``I think it's everyone's preference for North Korea to evolve gradually. But the North Korean regime is not transparent and we don't know much about what's going on inside there. So, it would be really important to have this international consultation.''