By Kang Hyun-kyung
Staff Reporter
South Korea is likely to watch from the sidelines in negotiations to settle the North Korean nuclear programs if Democratic candidate Barack Obama wins the U.S. presidential race, a think tank said Wednesday.
The National Assembly Research Service forecast that Obama would seek a direct Washington-Pyongyang dialogue in an attempt to resolve the nuclear standoff, while encouraging China to play an active role.
Seoul, as a consequence, will remain a less influential actor if the bilateral or trilateral talks gain momentum after the election, the think tank said in a paper, titled ``Major Issues of the U.S. Presidential Election and its Implications for the Korean Peninsula.''
``Considering Obama's previous speeches made on North Korean issues, he is more likely to seek an engagement policy rather than containment, which is what Pyongyang wants to hear,'' Lee Hyun-chul, the senior researcher of the think tank, told The Korea Times.
On several occasions, Obama has said that he may be willing to sit down face-to-face with leaders like North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, if that is what it takes to resolve the continuing nuclear standoff.
``The core implication of the possible direct Washington-Pyongyang dialogue is that Seoul may be left on the sidelines in the nuclear talks,'' Lee said.
Earlier, a pro-North Korea newspaper published in Japan reported that Pyongyang prefers Obama over John McCain of the Republican Party due to the Democratic candidate's stance on North Korea.
The paper said North Korea considers the Republican candidate ``a variant of Bush'' and ``nothing better than a scarecrow of neo-conservatives.''
If McCain wins the election, the think tank said the situation would evolve in a very different direction.
``As McCain stresses complete, verifiable, irreversible dismantlement of the nuclear programs, he will hold out both pressure and dialogue under the current six-party talks framework when dealing with Pyongyang,'' it said.
A U.S. expert, however, presented a very different overview of U.S. policy on Pyongyang after the November election.
Michael J. Green, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies based in Washington D.C., observed that ``Obama's position on North Korean affairs is moving toward that of McCain.''
He explained that Obama's pledge to sit down with the North Korean leader without conditions, which he made eight times in the Democratic Party national convention, was not popular among U.S. voters, and that there was a change in his stance on the North.
In his speech at the National Assembly's Asian Culture and Economy forum in Seoul, Green said, ``Both McCain and Obama say verification is critical. And, therefore, there will be continuity in the U.S. stance on North Korea's nuclear programs in the next administration.''
A foreign policy advisor to McCain, Green said the difference is much smaller when it comes to the two candidates' policy stance on the North. ``There will be no need for a long review on the six-party process after the election.''