By Michael Ha
Staff Reporter
North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's conspicuous absence from the Pyongyang military parade on Sept. 9, followed by reports that he had suffered a stroke, sparked a frenzy of speculation around the world about what may be in store for post-Kim North Korea.
The reports sent tremors through capitals in Asia and even in Washington where diplomats pondered a number of possible scenarios ― ranging from a regime collapse and the North Korean military brass taking over power to the reversal of denuclearization and renewed nuclear proliferation in the region.
But leading North Korean experts now say that while Kim's health may indeed be deteriorating, there is little sign of internal instability as of yet.
These experts told The Korea Times that a judicious, steady, low-key response may be the best way to deal with the recent wave of news about Kim's health problems.
At the same time, they advised South Korea and its allies to step up efforts to prepare for Kim's eventual death.
``Rumors of Kim's failing health have sent tremors through capitals in Northeast Asia and Washington," observed Bruce Klingner, senior research fellow for Northeast Asia at the Heritage Foundation in Washington.
``The all-encompassing role that Kim plays in North Korea and the lack of a formal succession plan is triggering concerns of regime collapse and instability were he to suddenly leave the scene," Klingner said.
He cautioned that it remains uncertain if current rumors of Kim suffering a stroke have any more veracity than earlier false reports on his health, coup, or assassination. ``However," he added, ``discussions with U.S. and South Korean officials indicate there is some cause for concern."
Klingner observed that ``speculation over the impact of Kim's incapacitation or death has run rampant and range from a calm transfer of power to more dire and extreme scenarios of warring factions causing sufficient turmoil to induce South Korea or China to intervene to restore order."
But he noted that the current ruling elite would ``seek to perpetuate the existing system after Kim's demise rather than risk regime collapse which could result from extensive reform and openness to the outside world."
There would, therefore, be incentive to unite behind a new consensus leader, he said. ``Of course, personal ambitions, competing rivalries, and miscalculation could lead to a leadership succession gone awry."
He forecast that there would be little policy change following a succession. ``The next leader would have less of a power base than Kim and would be more reliant on support from senior party and military leaders who are overwhelmingly nationalist and resistant to change.
``He would have to base his own legitimacy on maintaining the legacy of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il by continuing their policies and may have to act `more Kim than Kim.'"
On North Korea's nuclear program, Klingner said, ``Kim's departure from power will have little impact, if any, on the already deadlocked six-party talks."
``North Korea refuses to accept international standards of verification as called for in its September 2005 agreement to return at an early date to compliance with the International Atomic Energy Agency verification safeguards. Pyongyang seeks to minimize the intrusiveness of any inspection requirements, as it did in the 1994 Agreed Framework."
Klingner added that reports that the United States and South Korea have resumed bilateral contingency planning and may formalize plans into Operations Plan (Opplan) 5029 are encouraging.
``Washington and Seoul should also reach out to Tokyo to ensure sufficient preparations for diplomatic, economic, and military responses to the range of potential scenarios that would ensue from a regime collapse in Pyongyang. Washington should also confer with Beijing to prevent miscalculation during a North Korean crisis."
According to Donald Gregg, chairman of the New York-based Korea Society and former U.S. ambassador to Korea from 1989 to 1993, there are a number of developments in the region that are worth noting.
``The following things are going on," Gregg said. ``It is widely reported that Kim has health problems. The highly complicated negotiations pointing toward denuclearization have slowed down," Gregg said. ``North Korea may have tested a rocket motor, as a reminder to the outside world of its technical capabilities."
But he also counseled that ``there is no reason at all for panic."
``Over the next several months, all concerned countries should do what they can to maintain an atmosphere of stability and continuity in the Northeast Asian region," he said.
``The North Koreans are showing no signs of internal instability. Foreign reaction to Kim's reported illness have largely been sensible, noting that he has come to be someone quite well known to the outside world, and with whom a certain amount of business can be done."
Gregg added that ``if the next American president pursues a moderate, judicious policy toward North Korea, further progress toward denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula can be made."
Andrei Lankov, a North Korea specialist and professor at Kookmin University in Seoul, also told The Korea Times that Kim's regime in Pyongyang seems to be holding up well for now.
When asked whether the South Korean government and other interested parties should get nervous, he answered no.
``We should not worry too much because we have seen reports about Kim's bad health or even about his death enough times. But he's still quite alive as you know. And in most cases, after time, they have another wave of reports about Kim's bad health," Lankov said.
But this time, he added, ``I am taking it just a bit more seriously because, first, he did not show up for the 60th anniversary parade, which was a bit strange.
``Second, we have South Korean and American officials confirming that something is strange, that he is indeed sick. So right now, I would say I am inclined to suspect that he is sick. But had the illness been serious, we would see some unusual moves in Pyongyang. We do not see any. Pyongyang is calm; no unusual troops movement; no changes in radio exchanges. Nothing. And it looks likes business as usual for now."
When asked whether he anticipates a possible collapse in Pyongyang's power structure, he answered, ``If Kim has just a minor illness, why should we expect a regime change?
``You know, a man who is 66 years old is bound to be sick sometimes. There is nothing unusual or special about that. Of course, he will die sooner or later: maybe next year, maybe in 25 years' time. We don't know. But right now, it looks like there is no reason to expect his death in the near future."
Lankov noted that if Kim had indeed suffered from a stroke, ``a lot of stroke victims can still make good recoveries."
``I personally know a number of people who have suffered from a stroke, and most of them have recovered more or less completely. And once again, top North Korea officials don't appear to be worried. They don't appear to be jockeying for power."
He said that, assuming Kim is suffering from an illness, even a minor one, ``we should not expect any dramatic changes in denuclearization discussions because on such a sensitive but essentially a non-urgent issue, everybody will just wait for his recovery. This means that all these negotiations, for a while, will actually be frozen."
The professor also advised that what is important to keep in mind is that ``this is another reminder that sooner or later Kim will die."
``We should think about specific measures, about what policies to undertake after his death. This is a reminder that Kim is mortal, that he will eventually die. There should be some concrete policies prepared for this unavoidable eventuality."
Lankov advised that ``first, develop exchanges with the North Korean government and especially with the North Korean society, to bring as many North Koreans as possible to the outside world, and to bring as many foreigners as possible into North Korea.
``These exchanges would help them study modern technology and get better knowledge and understanding of the modern world. It will be very useful for the post-Kim transition," Lankov said.
``At the same time, I believe we should support opposition forces ― reformist forces as well as pro-democracy forces ― both within the North Korean society and among refugees," he said.
``South Korea should take care to educate refugees and create alternative North Korean elites and help young, able North Korean defectors get an education with an assumption that these new alternative elites will be very useful in case of a regime change."
Another North Korea expert, Marcus Noland, told The Korea Times that ``the current situation is disturbingly similar ― ongoing nuclear tensions, a humanitarian crisis ― to 1994 when Kim Il-sung died."
Noland, a North Korea expert at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, said that ``now the North's relationship with the relief agencies is more institutionalized and probably requires less high-level decision-making.
``But the country is again in a nuclear confrontation with the United States and there is no apparent successor. If Kim were to die, the country would probably have trouble making decisions about big issues such as the nuclear program," Noland said.
He observed that there appear to be three power centers in Pyongyang: ``the family, the party, and the military, and there appear to be rivalries within each, and possible coalitions across them as well."
``The best-case scenario would be a smooth emergence of collective leadership based on the National Defense Commission, and the worst would be a fragmentation and an outright civil war with one or more factions appealing for outside support."