By Kang Hyun-kyung
Staff Reporter
Rep. Chung Mong-joon leads the ruling Grand National Party (GNP) leadership race slated for Thursday, while Rep. Choo Mi-ae has a narrow lead in the United Democratic Party (UDP) contest to take place Sunday, said a latest poll Tuesday.
The Munhwa Ilbo newspaper poll of 1,000 members of the public ― not party delegates ― found that Chung was favored by 24.5 percent of them, followed by Park Hee-tae with support of 17.1 percent.
According to the survey, the UDP race was practically a dead heat with Choo slightly ahead of former lawmaker Chyung Dae-chul.
Political analysts said the survey results might be misleading for two reasons ― the newspaper used a different voting method from the one to be used by the GNP in the real race; and the survey was conducted on citizens, not party delegates.
A Hankyoreh newspaper poll conducted last week, found that Park Hee-tae of the GNP, and Chung Sye-kyun ― who ranks third in the UDP race in the Munhwa Ilbo survey ― led the leadership races with double-digit figures, respectively.
The Munhwa Ilbo asked each respondent to give the name of their preferred candidate out of the six running in the GNP leadership race.
In the July 3 contest, the ruling party will allow each party delegate to cast two votes, while 30 percent of the overall result will be determined by a public opinion poll.
Political analysts said the two elements ― one man two votes, along with the application of 30 percent of public opinion survey results in determining the winner of the July 3 race ― are the major factors making it difficult to predict who will win in the leadership contest.
It is also difficult to conclude who will be the winner of the UDP race as well, they said.
The Munhwa Ilbo paper survey said 20.9 percent of non-partisan respondents picked Rep. Choo as their favored candidate, followed by Chyung with 16.7 percent and Rep. Chung Sye-kyun, 14.5 percent.
The results are very different from polls conducted by the party, which said Rep. Chung led the race by a wide margin, followed by Choo.
Political analysts said the gap occurred probably because the newspaper poll was conducted on the general public, not party delegates.
A one-man-one-vote rule will be applied in the UDP leadership race and a total of 10,000 delegates will be asked to exercise their ballots.