Northeast Asia Faces Turbulence

By Kim Heung-kyu

Current international politics in Northeast Asia contain characteristics of profound adjustments and turbulence.

Changing national powers, the rise of China, North Korea problems and Taiwan issues comprise variables for ``atrophy,'' in which elements of uncertainty and instability increase unimaginably.

Responding to these challenges, President Lee Myung-bak's foreign policy team has put forth strengthening the U.S.-Korea alliance and Korea-U.S.-Japan cooperation as a prescription.

Under the principles of ``value-oriented, confidence-building and peace-making diplomacy,'' pragmatism has been adopted as an operational rule.

Whether President Lee's visits to the United States and Japan were successful might depend on the outcome of Lee's visit to China because, by many observers, China policy has been considered a loophole in Lee's foreign policy.

The value-oriented and ideology-oriented qualities of Lee's diplomacy could conflict with the frame of ``pragmatic diplomacy.''

But it remains unclear how the new administration will define relations with China, which is generally assessed to pursue different political values under a different system.

President Lee pays an official visit to China from May 27-30. The most important task of his visit will be to reconstruct confidence between both countries, while casting away Chinese anxiety about Lee's foreign policy as a potential threat to regional stability.

Let alone economic issues, China will continue to act as a crucial variable to Korea in the transformation of the regional security mechanism, the denuclearization of North Korea, the resolution of North Korea problems, and other non-traditional security issues.

The role of China cannot be replaced by strengthening the Korea-U.S. alliance and Korea-U.S.-Japan cooperation since the fate of Korea will be profoundly influenced in the bilateral relationship with China. Beijing is already a neighbor that cannot be rejected or avoided on the basis of good or bad.

China also believes its relations with South Korea have great strategic value. In international politics in the Northeast Asian region, South Korea will remain an important diplomatic partner who can ease China's overall isolation in the region.

As a party to the process to resolve the security problems of Northeast Asia, including the North Korean nuclear issue, South Korea can exact significant impact on the national interest of China.

In preparation for a possible collapse of North Korea, China even wants to maintain cooperative relations with South Korea as well as with the United States.

The Korean government needs ``creative pragmatic diplomacy'' in dealing with China. Creative diplomacy avoids defining China with a fixed concept and takes an imaginative approach considering the trajectories and uncertainties of Chinese diplomacy. China is a nation in transformation. Predicting its future with a fixed standard, risks losing sight of reality.

In the creative approach, strategic management capabilities are more emphasized than strategic planning. It is necessary to maintain strategic management of relations with China so Korea can adjust its policies to changes taking place there.

There is no doubt that the Korea-U.S. alliance has been and will be the pillar of Korean security architecture. However, Seoul should also try to establish complex, multifaceted and full-fledged cooperative relations with Beijing through close communication and mutual adjustments, while accumulating confidence.

Creative pragmatic diplomacy requires flexible thinking and ability to manage new situations. As China`s diplomacy is turning increasingly complex, efforts to cope with these changes must be based on a deeper understanding of Chinese diplomacy as well as rich imagination and inspiration.

It is time to wait to see what the outcome of President Lee`s visit to China will be. Given its future-oriented implications, it is desirable in principle to pursue a strategic partnership with China but the substance of relations should be seriously considered in detail when declaring such a partnership.

President Lee's visit should lay the cornerstone of mutual cooperation and common prosperity based on trust and respect for each other.

The writer is a professor at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS), an affiliate of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade. He worked as an adviser to the Presidential Advisory Commission on Foreign Affairs and National Security and as a participant at South Korea-China Strategic Dialogue. His other assignments currently include chair of the Chinese Foreign Affairs and National Security Committee of Korea-China Think-net and a standing member of the China Forum, the Korean Federation of Industries. ― ED.