By Yoon Won-sup
Staff Reporter
Unlike in the past, Seoul residents are expected to play a crucial role in the presidential election this year, according to various polls.
In the past, voters in Seoul were almost equally divided between two major candidates. This time, 48-50 percent of voters in Seoul back Lee Myung-bak, making him the frontrunner, outdistancing independent Lee Hoi-chang and liberal candidate Chung Dong-young, who received 14.4 percent and 11.1 percent, respectively.
In the race five years ago, Roh Moo-hyun received support of 51.3 percent to Lee Hoi-chang's 44.95 percent, while a decade ago, Kim Dae-jung got 44.87 percent, higher than runner-up Lee Hoi-chang's 40.89 percent. Fifteen years ago, Kim Dae-jung and Kim Young-sam received 37.74 percent and 36.41 percent, respectively, when Roe Te-woo won the election on a split of the opposition vote.
A Dong-a Ilbo survey showed that 47.7 percent of Seoulites support the former Seoul mayor, the highest level in any region and even higher than 42 percent in Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province, the traditional stronghold for the conservative Grand National Party.
A pollster said voters in Seoul and its vicinity have high expectations of the former Seoul mayor on the economic boom in their region because they saw tangible results with the restoration of the Cheongye stream and the establishment of bus-only lanes in Seoul.
The number of voters in Seoul, Incheon and Gyeonggi Province is 18.3 million, which accounts for 48.5 percent of total voters, according to the National Election Commission (NEC).
Without strong and solid support in Seoul and its vicinities, Lee Myung-bak may not maintain his current frontrunner status, the pollster said.
He said the former CEO of Hyundai Engineering and Construction also enjoys high popularity in Incheon and Gyeonggi Province. He receives the largest support of 38.3 percent, followed by the former prime minister with 15 percent and Chung with 12.7 percent, according to the survey.
The survey also showed residents in Seoul and adjacent areas are more loyal to the candidates they support.
About 64 percent of Seoul voters and 66 percent of Incheon and Gyeonggi Province said they will not change their support from the candidate they support now. The figures are higher than the average of 61 percent nationwide.
As Seoul emerges as the most important battlefield for contenders, other regions such as Gyeongsang and Jeolla provinces are diminishing in their importance. Plus, traditional regionalism defined as the three strongholds of the Gyeongsang, Jeolla and Chungcheong provinces is disappearing in this election.
In past decades, the southeastern Gyeongsang residents showed absolute support for the GNP while Jeolla voters backed the Democratic Party, the predecessor of Chung's United New Democratic Party.
Another survey conducted by Research and Research on Nov. 24 showed that 36.9 percent of voters in Gwangju and South Jeolla Province support Chung while 12.4 percent and 9.8 percent support the former Seoul mayor and the former prime minister, respectively.
Though Chung leads the race in his party's stronghold, the Jeolla region is less enthusiastic for him than for Kim Dae-jung, who commanded more than 90 percent of the vote in the southwest.