election Can Unified Liberal Candidate Win Election?
By Kim Sue-young
Staff Reporter
The proverb `two heads are better than one' is what the United New Democratic Party (UNDP), in seeking a merger with other liberal groups, is evidently laying its hopes on.
However, there are many questions to whether the liberal parties, under the alliance, can defeat front-running candidate Lee Myung-bak of the Grand National Party (GNP) or independent Lee Hoi-chang, both widely supported by conservative groups.
On Monday, the UNDP joined hands with the minor opposition Democratic Party (DP) to field a joint candidate for a full-fledged battle with the GNP ahead of the Dec. 19 presidential election.
The two liberal parties which face a possible reunion after four years, plan to select a nominee through a nationwide survey conducted between Nov. 23 and 24.
After winning the 2002 presidential election on the ticket of the Millennium Democratic Party, the predecessor of the DP, President Roh Moo-hyun and his supporters created the Uri Party, de facto predecessor of the UNDP, in November 2003.
Election experts speculated that UNDP nominee Chung Dong-young will likely win the to-be-merged party's ticket to challenge the GNP nominee.
In the previous presidential elections in 1997 and 2002, the so-called democratic and reformative groups were able to win the polls by merging.
The DP and the UNDP insisted that they paved the way to set the electoral landscape as competition between liberals and conservatives.
They expect what they call ``coalition'' to bring massive synergy and draw cohesion of their supporters.
The two sides added their merger will move the hearts of supporters in the Jeolla provinces, which are traditional strongholds of liberal parties, and then affect voters in Seoul and surrounding Gyeonggi Province.
They also anticipate gaining support from Chungcheong Provinces where DP nominee Rhee In-je was born.
The merger, tentatively named United Democratic Party, will emerge as the largest negotiating group in the 299-member National Assembly. The two parties have a combined 148 seats.
Little Effect?
Unlike the liberals' rosy forecast, speculations are mounting that the alliance of those groups will have little effect on the presidential race.
The liberal forces expect a come-from-behind victory by fielding a unified candidate as their predecessors did in previous races, but things are different now, Yoon Gyung-ju, president of politics consulting firm Polcom, told The Korea Times.
``In the 1997 and 2002 elections, the alliance of liberal candidates assured the victory and their combined approval ratings were higher than competitors,'' he said. ``But now things are different.''
While GNP nominee Lee keeps taking a solid lead in opinion polls with about 40 percent support, Chung has seen stagnant support of about 15 percent.
Other candidates, such as Rhee In-je of the DP, Moon Kook-hyun of the Creative Korea Party and Kwon Young-gil of the Democratic Labor Party, have struggled with single-digit support.
As a result, a combined figure that the liberal candidates may receive is still far behind that of Lee Myung-bak and similar to that of independent Lee Hoi-chang who announced his third bid for the presidency last Wednesday.
Veteran politician Lee emerged as a dark horse, receiving about 20 percent support as soon as he joined the race.
Yoon also pointed out more voters have turned conservative, after liberal forces led the nation for 10 years.
Kim Hyung-joon, professor of political science at Myongji University in Seoul, is also skeptical over the impact the liberal forces' alliance would bring.
``First of all, there is no sign of cohesion in the Jeolla provinces. Lee Myung-bak has about 15 percent of support in this region, which is about 10 percentage points higher than that of his predecessors,'' Kim told The Korea Times.
Bumpy Road
``Besides, Lee garnered double the support of Chung, who comes from Jeolla, which enables him to lead the race.''
Jeolla people are not favorable to Jeolla-based politicians any more, Kim said. ``Previously, they used to support their fellow provincials but now they tend to consider actual benefits.''
Supporters of Roh are an important variable to whether or not they will cloud the way of liberals, the professor said.
``They account for 10 to 15 percent of the population. But it remains uncertain whether all of them will cast their votes for the merged party, which is actually another form of the DP.''
The alliance, however, seems to be the only way for the liberal groups to win the presidential election despite those side effects, Kim added.
Who will join hands with whom?
The UNDP and the DP agreed to merge but it remains unclear whether Moon and Kwon will also join the new group, experts said.
Professor Kim suggested that the four sides may drive a four-phase integration due to general elections scheduled next June.
As the first step, Chung and Rhee may join hands and agree to put up a unified candidate based on the results of a nationwide survey.
The second phase is a union with Moon Kook-hyun of the CKP.
Kim said they will likely campaign with a running-mate system and without a survey select a representative.
``For example, Moon who has the image of a business leader, will deal with economy-related policies, while either Chung or Rhee will be in charge of unification issues, diplomacy and national defense, like in 1997 presidential election.''
Then opposition candidate Kim Dae-jung could turn the tide by building an alliance with his long-time rival, Kim Jong-pil, who was awarded premiership after Kim's win.
``Even though Moon gives up the bid for the alliance, his party can still maintain its name,'' the professor said. ``The CKP can take a separate road to gain Assembly seats in the general elections even though the liberal groups run unsuccessfully.''
The last stage is to hold hands with DLP nominee Kwon.
Kim said common interest in anti-corruption will help facilitate cohesion-building and drive them to pledge a coalition government.
`Repeated Unified Candidacy Shows Underdeveloped Politics'
Unified candidacy is not the only hot potato of this year's presidential race.
In the 1997 and 2002 elections, presidential candidates announced a unified candidacy just a month before the voting day.
Professor Kim pointed out that it shows an underdeveloped politics here.
``In the U.S., each state has laws related to candidacy but we have a feeble system,'' Kim said. ``I think the nation should regulate that political parties pick their candidates about six months before a presidential election.''
He also criticized lawmakers saying they tend to find making and disbanding parties easy.
``A political party is a group of people who share the same policies, visions and ideologies. But the UNDP and the DP decided to merge even though they differ over pending issues.''
The UNDP nominee insisted that the nation should not ease the regulations, which prevent family-run conglomerates here from owning banks while the DP upheld the law.
``Lawmakers tend to take advantage of improvised mergers ahead of elections,'' the professor said.