Will Chungcheong Region’s Choice Sway Presidential Election Again?
By Jung Sung-ki
Staff Reporter
In South Korean political circles, there is a saying that ``politics is a living thing,'' which symbolizes how political affairs are dynamic and how frequently undergo changes, sometimes unexpected ones.
But there is one thing that has not changed and something politicians should bear in mind, particularly when election day comes, ``When you win the hearts of voters in the Chungcheong provinces, you can seize the power.''
The immutable ``politics formula'' regarding the power of Chungcheong voters has already been proven in the nation's election history and now presidential hopefuls from the governing and opposition camps are paying close attention to what the swing voters' choice will be in the Dec. 19 presidential election.
Chungcheong as Election Barometer
Located in the middle of the country, the provinces have played a pivotal role in deciding South Korea's political shape and eventually electing the President since 1987 when direct presidential voting resumed in the country.
In 1987, Roh Tae-woo on the ticket of the then governing Democratic Justice Party, a predecessor of the current Grand National Party (GNP), won the 13th presidential election, beating Kim Young-sam. Roh's 757,713 votes, 32 percent of the total eligible votes, from the central region over Kim's 460,378 votes were decisive for the victory, political analysts say.
The next three presidential elections were largely swayed by ``Chungcheong's choice,'' giving the provinces the nickname, ``election barometer.''
In 1990, Chungcheong leader Kim Jong-pil, then chairman of the now-defunct United Liberal Democrats (ULD), formed a three-party coalition with then President Roh Tae-woo and Kim Young-sam, then chairman of the now-disbanded Reunification Democratic Party and who had the support base of southeastern Gyeongsang provinces.
The coalition eventually helped Kim Young-sam win the 1992 election, defeating Kim Dae-jung on the ticket of the then opposition New Democratic Party backed by voters from the southwestern Jeolla provinces.
Kim Jong-pil took a ``coalition-building strategy'' again in 1997 by joining forces with Kim Dae-jung. After garnering substantial votes from the central region boosted by the so-called DJP coalition, Kim Dae-jung defeated then candidate Lee Hoi-chang from a predecessor of the GNP.
Chungcheong-born Lee of the GNP seemed certain to win the 2002 race with Kim Jong-pil's regional power waning but his presidential bid was again frustrated by opposition candidate Roh Moo-hyun's Chungcheong-favoring campaign pledge to build an administrative capital in the toss-up region.
Roh, candidate of the now-dissolved Millennium Democratic Party (MDP), had a lead of 11.26 percentage points to Lee. Roh garnered some 570,000 more eligible votes nationwide than Lee, in which 256,000 votes came from Chungcheong.
The figure provided a fairly wide gap, given that Roh had a lead of 6.04 percentage points in Seoul and Gyeonggi Province, which had been regarded MDP-leaning regions.
Prospect for 2007 Race
Political analysts and election watchers say the 2007 race is also expected to count on Chungcheong's decision.
``Chungcheong voters' choice has had, and will have a symbolic meaning in the presidential race,'' Professor Kim Hyung-joon of Myongji University in Seoul said in a phone interview with The Korea Times.
Chungcheong's ``kingmaker'' role is based on the residents' ``pragmatic regionalism'' different from Gyeongsang region's ``hegemony regionalism'' and Jeolla's ``resistance regionalism,'' Kim said, referring to the country's deep-rooted regional animosity between the two southern regions.
``Given population ratio and the region's weak political influence, Chungcheong is difficult to field their own presidential candidate realistically. And the residents already learned that fact very well mirrored by previous records,'' Kim said.
``That's why Chungcheong voters have taken such a practical approach toward selecting political leaders,'' said the professor. ``They will not be inclined to emotional regionalism but see which presidential hopefuls will come up with better pledges for their hometown.''
Kim cited former Seoul Mayor Lee Myung-bak's slighter victory to his party rival Park Geun-hye in the Chungcheong provinces than any other regions in approval ratings as an example.
Lee, who opposed the relocation of government agencies from Seoul to Chungcheong, has some 31.5 percent of support in the region over the relocation-backer Park with 26.1 percent, according to a survey of 1,000 Chungcheong residents early this month by TNS Korea.
The margin between the two contenders in Chungcheong Province is much narrower than an average of 20 percent gap in other regions.
The number of Chungcheong voters is estimated at about 7 million including 3.7 million locals and others residing in Seoul and its vicinity. The number is not high but quite influential given another swing regions of Gangwon Province and Jeju Island have 1.1 million and 400,000 voters, respectively, election watchers say.
Former Daejon Mayor Sim Dae-pyong's victory in western Daejon district in the April 25 by-elections over the GNP showcased Chungcheong's status to keep playing a role as an election barometer, Kim said.
``I think Sim's People First Party (PFP) will expand its political influence for the time being and will exert its regional influence by supporting a political group or merging with others,'' Kim noted. ``Chungcheong's choice is likely to be influenced by the ongoing GNP developments, including who will become the standard-bearer in the December election or if Lee and Park will split in the end and so on.''
Chances for the PFP to join forces with the GNP is high in case Park becomes the party candidate due to their shared conservative policy lines, he analyzed.
