Korea’s identity and grand strategy in post-liberal age

We have entered an era in which binaries and idioms such as “shrimp caught between whales," “anti-communism,” and “security alliance with the U.S, economic alignment with China” no longer adequately captures the geopolitical reality surrounding the Korean Peninsula. Beyond merely navigating the fault lines of U.S.-China hegemonic rivalry, South Korea has arrived at a historic inflection point where it must redefine not only its survival strategy, but its very national identity and strategic mode of existence.

Recent geopolitical developments have largely vindicated Scott Snyder, president and CEO of the Korea Economic Institute of America, who warned that the U.S.–South Korea alliance faces its greatest vulnerability not from external threats but from within. The far-reaching consequences of U.S. President Donald Trump's foreign policy have underscored this reality, shaking the foundations of traditional American alliance structures while accelerating the dismantling of the post–World War II multilateral, rules-based liberal international order. Under Trump, allies are increasingly expected to compensate America for decades of security guarantees through tangible contributions. Securing strategic autonomy demands the possession of credible leverage capable of preventing coercion by major powers. More broadly, Trump represents a Hegelian “world-historical individual” who accelerates a broader civilizational and geopolitical transition.

Drawing on Halford Mackinder’s Eurasian geopolitical framework and the notion of strategic simultaneity, the resurgence of great-power rivalry has turned Eurasia into an integrated security space where crises across Europe, the Indo-Pacific and the Korean Peninsula are increasingly interconnected and mutually reinforcing.

This is an order shaped by raw power, ruthless competition, survival of the fittest and winner-takes-all logic that permeates economics, politics and culture alike.

So how should South Korea navigate these tumultuous times?

To begin with, South Korea must adopt and implement the realist, anti-hegemonic grand strategy of “using one power to balance another.”

Just as the United States seeks rapprochement with Russia to contain China, China approaches Europe to offset American pressure and Russia leverages relations with the United States to counterbalance Europe, South Korea too must strategically utilize geopolitical competition to maximize its own national value, autonomy and leverage rather than allowing itself to be treated merely as a geopolitical card in the hands of larger powers.

Moreover, South Korea must maintain a delicate strategic balance between the United States and China and also resist the crystallization of a rigid bloc confrontation between a South Korea-U.S.-Japan alignment and a North Korea-China-Russia axis.

Although the U.S.-South Korea alliance must continue to serve as the foundation of security architecture, Seoul must also seek to moderate excessive demands and avoid becoming overly entangled in U.S.-China rivalry or overextending its own strategic commitments. At the same time, South Korea must gradually reduce economic dependence on China while preserving stable and constructive trade relations.

To reinforce this strategy at the international level, South Korea must urgently pursue a form of middle-power diplomacy and diplomatic diversification grounded in concrete strategic design and institutional coordination. This entails diversifying trade and strategic partnerships through joint third-country initiatives and expanding cooperation with Japan, Singapore, Australia, Europe and the Global South.

For South Korea, this moment presents both a profound challenge and a historic opportunity. If it fails to navigate this shifting world order with a strategic vision that transcends ideological divisions and is grounded in geopolitical acumen, it may eventually confront a security dilemma similar to that now facing Europe. The age of passive dependence is over. The era of actively shaping strategic spaces has begun.

Chang Se-myeong(semyeongchangx7@korea.ac.kr) is a student at Korea University Graduate School of International Studies, majoring in International Peace and Security.