ED Xi emboldens Kim Jong-un

Chinese President Xi Jinping and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un watch a march-past as Kim holds a welcome ceremony for Xi at Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang, Monday. Reuters-Yonhap

Kim Jong-un has good reason to believe that time is on his side. North Korea’s restoration of a mutual defense alliance with Russia in 2024 appears to have raised concerns in China that its leverage over Pyongyang may be eroding. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s recent two-day visit to North Korea for a summit with Kim suggests that Beijing has begun to view North Korea as a more significant regional partner.

North Korea was Xi’s first foreign destination of the year. The diplomatic symbolism appears to have emboldened Kim. According to the North's Korean Central News Agency, Kim viewed Xi’s decision to make Pyongyang the destination of his first overseas trip of the year as a highly encouraging sign of support.

The Xi-Kim summit on Monday has complicated Seoul’s foreign policy and security calculations. South Korea is particularly concerned about the absence of any Chinese commitment to North Korea’s denuclearization.

During his 2019 summit with Kim in Pyongyang, Xi stated that China was willing to play a constructive role in achieving the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. This time, however, references to denuclearization were absent from media reports on the summit, raising concerns that China may have abandoned its long-standing support for a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula.

Such concerns may be overstated. It is premature to interpret the omission as evidence of a fundamental shift in Chinese policy. A nuclear-armed North Korea remains a strategic headache for China, which shares a border with the North. The benefits of improved relations with Pyongyang cannot outweigh the potentially severe consequences China could face in the event of instability or sudden change in North Korea.

It is therefore more reasonable to interpret Xi’s silence on the nuclear issue as a reflection of China’s current priorities. At present, Beijing appears focused on strengthening ties with Pyongyang while maintaining the hope that North Korea may eventually abandon its nuclear ambitions and open its economy to foreign investment, following a path similar to China’s own development model.

China appears to have realized that North Korea, once regarded as a poor and troublesome neighbor, possesses strategic value. This shift in perception came on the heels of a series of summits between Kim and Russian President Vladimir Putin. As Craig Singleton, a senior fellow on China at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, put it, “China sees Pyongyang as a strategic asset in a broader China-centered axis” aimed at creating what Beijing calls an “equal and orderly multipolar world order” in place of one dominated by the United States.

Kim has repeatedly insisted that North Korea’s nuclear program is nonnegotiable. Roughly a week before the summit with Xi, Pyongyang unveiled a new facility for the production of nuclear materials. Kim pledged to expand the country’s nuclear capabilities “at an exponential rate.” The move appeared intended as a show of force and a signal to China that the nuclear issue should not be addressed at the summit.

Xi may have concluded that pressing Kim on such a sensitive issue would do little to advance China-North Korea relations. Instead, the Chinese leader emphasized the importance of expanding cooperation in various fields, including diplomacy and law enforcement.

Xi’s proposal to increase military exchanges as part of efforts to strengthen bilateral ties has raised concerns. Chinese media provided few details about the nature of such exchanges, making it difficult to assess Beijing’s intentions. Seoul should closely monitor post-summit military cooperation between the two countries.

Before the summit, some observers in Seoul had expressed hope that the meeting could help ease regional tensions. Citing a government source, Yonhap News Agency reported that Xi might serve as a mediator between U.S. President Donald Trump and Kim, potentially helping to arrange another Trump-Kim summit.

However, neither Chinese nor North Korean media mentioned any such mediating role. Singleton is skeptical that Xi can act as a bridge between Trump and Kim. “I would be cautious about overstating Xi as a genuine mediator. While some South Korean reporting points in that direction, Xi is not acting as an emissary for Trump,” he told The Korea Times.

Rather than signaling an easing of tensions, the Xi-Kim summit underscored growing cooperation among three authoritarian states — China, Russia and North Korea.

Kim also sought to curry favor with Xi by publicly reaffirming his support for the "One China" policy. Through this calculated gesture, the North Korean leader hopes to further solidify relations with China, North Korea’s economic lifeline.

The implications for South Korea are clear. Seoul should pursue a more consistent and coherent strategy toward strengthening trilateral cooperation with the United States and Japan.