ED NK's emboldened military posture

North Korea launches an intermediate-range ballistic missile tipped with a hypersonic warhead, April 2, in this photo released by the North's official Korean Central News Agency the following day. Yonhap

One act of aggression after another — is this the new global norm? While the news broke Wednesday of a tenuous two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, North Korea fired ballistic missiles twice on the same day.

North Korea fired two missiles on Wednesday, one in the morning that flew 240 kilometers and another in the afternoon that went 700 kilometers. The day before, it had also fired a ballistic missile, something Seoul officials reportedly only learned belatedly through U.S. intelligence.

President Lee Jae Myung on Monday made a rare apology to North Korea for drone incursions into the North's airspace. Instead of castigating the president, Kim Yo-jong, the powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, responded by saying the president's apology was "very fortunate and wise behavior." Jolted by the positive language, Cheong Wa Dae and the unification ministry found meaning in the fast affirmation of respective opinions, albeit indirectly. However, Jang Kum-chol, a senior diplomat in North Korea's foreign ministry, blasted Seoul's hopes as "ridiculous."

There is no consensus among experts on why the North chose to engage in weapons testing again. The North's official Korean Central News Agency said that it had three days of weapons testing.

North Korean state media listed the types of weapons tested, including cluster bombs that can target civilians. The others were "electromagnetic weapon systems" and "carbon fiber sham bombs scattering." This reflects the North's intent to further upgrade its modern and asymmetrical warfare capabilities, acquired through participation in Russia's war in Ukraine. Similar tactics can be seen with Iranian drones in the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.

North Korea is presumed to have revised its constitution to categorize the relationship between the two Koreas as “hostile two-state relations” as announced by Kim in 2023. Recently, the ruling Workers’ Party is known to have reflected this principle into its own rules.In that sense, the North does not have much incentive to engage with the South, despite continuous overtures made by the current liberal Lee Jae Myung administration. Cognizant of U.S. President Donald Trump's interest in holding talks with the North Korean leader, Lee proposed serving as "pacemaker" with Trump the "peacemaker" on the Korean Peninsula during their summit talks in Washington last year.

However, we must ask whether the wars in Ukraine and Iran and their effect on modern warfare have emboldened North Korea.

Seoul should rethink how to proceed with engagement efforts while avoiding military and diplomatic dilemmas. Before Trump's upcoming visit to China for a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi is currently in Pyongyang for talks. Experts speculate that it may be to allow Pyongyang to relay a message to Trump via China.

Seoul should look beyond the familiar, repeated shows of aggression from Pyongyang and factor in whether global contingencies and the success of asymmetric warfare are hyping up Pyongang’s military ambitions. More importantly, Seoul needs to concentrate on its readiness and its alliance with the U.S., as the country is also expected to accelerate alliance modernization, marked by increased flexibility in dispatching USFK assets and personnel.

The other factor to consider is the readiness of South Korea's military. Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back announced Wednesday that front-line troops will be reduced down to 6,000 from the current 22,000, and more than 16,000 will be redeployed into rear posts. The minister cited demographic decline and improvements in surveillance technology as reasons for the changes. He added that it will be implemented over time through 2040. Reforms should be implemented when required. However, goodwill and rapprochement must be matched with technological and military readiness.