ED When Pyongyang is afraid, opportunity emerges

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, center, watches the test launch of a missile in this undated photo. Yonhap

The Donald Trump administration’s operation to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro appears to have had a real impact on North Korea. Pyongyang said it would continue to “sophisticate” its weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) to make them more lethal and destructive, calling such actions a deterrence against enemies.

The North’s state-controlled Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said on Monday that the country successfully test-fired a hypersonic missile the previous day. According to the report, the missile struck a target in the East Sea about 1,000 kilometers northeast of Pyongyang.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un personally observed the test launch of the missile, designated as Hwasong-11E.

Kim said that one way to ensure deterrence is to repeatedly remind enemies that North Korea’s strategic assets are ready for use anytime and anywhere, and that they are powerful and lethal enough to destroy their adversaries.

“The ongoing geopolitical crisis and developments in international affairs clearly show why we need such a strong level of deterrence,” Kim was quoted as saying by KCNA. He did not specify which incidents he was referring to.

Considering the timing of the missile test, however, it is evident that the Trump administration’s operation to capture and bring Maduro to the U.S. to face criminal charges was one of the key events that motivated the North Korean leader to proceed with the launch.

Maduro is facing four criminal charges in the Southern District Court of New York, including being accused of partnering with Colombian guerrilla groups and other cartels to use cocaine as a weapon against the U.S.

Washington justified the controversial operation, code-named “Absolute Resolve,” as a law enforcement action based on U.S. indictments against Maduro.

There is little doubt that the capture and transfer of the Venezuelan leader and his wife to the U.S. stoked fear in dictators around the world. Kim is likely one of them, concerned he could face a similar fate. This sense of insecurity may have driven him to carry out another provocation in the form of the test of the Hwasong-11E, a short-range missile equipped with a hypersonic glide vehicle. The missile is part of the KN-23 series, often compared to Russia’s Iskander missile.

Scared dogs bite. This is a defensive reaction. North Korea’s latest provocation may be a reflection of its sense of crisis.

The North test-fired the Hwasong-11E just one day after Maduro’s arrival in New York to face criminal charges. This timing suggests that Kim may be deeply unsettled by the possibility that he could be next.

Kim feeling pressure is not necessarily good news for South Korea. Desperate people can be willing to do anything to ensure their survival. Kim’s remarks that North Korea will continue to advance its WMDs under his leadership demonstrates his resolve to rely on provocation rather than pursue peaceful engagement.

There are steps South Korea should take to prevent the North from becoming an even greater threat.

First, Seoul should learn from past mistakes. During previous liberal administrations, leaders such as Moon Jae-in adopted engagement-oriented policies aimed at encouraging North Korea to denuclearize. These efforts produced the opposite result — South Korea wasted valuable time under the illusion that the North would abandon its nuclear arsenal, allowing Pyongyang to continue advancing its WMD programs. Such mistakes should not be repeated.

Second, Seoul must recognize that North Korea has no intention of ending its nuclear program. Pyongyang has repeatedly stated that it will not give up its nuclear arsenal, describing it as essential to its self-defense.

It is time to take North Korea at its word. Seoul should abandon wishfully thinking that incentives alone will persuade the regime to denuclearize. Seoul should find ways to channel North Korea’s fear into real progress on the peninsula.

Denuclearization will remain empty rhetoric as long as the Kim dynasty remains in power. South Korea needs a new, realistic approach to managing North Korea — and planning for it should begin now.