ED Intensifying China-Japan feud

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, left, shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Gyeongju, North Gyeongsang Province, Oct. 31. The two leaders met ahead of the China-Japan summit held in the city. Yonhap

Tensions across Northeast Asia are intensifying, signaling a disturbing shift in the region’s strategic landscape. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s recent declaration that Japan’s Self-Defense Forces could intervene in the event of a Chinese move on Taiwan has triggered a sharp escalation in China-Japan tensions, spilling over from diplomacy into economic and cultural arenas.

This development comes at a delicate moment, as Seoul and Tokyo have only recently begun repairing strained relations. Even this tentative progress has faltered after Japan rejected an in-flight refueling request from Korea’s 53rd Air Demonstration Group, commonly known as the Black Eagles aerobatic team. Japan cited the unit's recent training flights near Dokdo, prompting the postponement of a planned joint rescue exercise. Meanwhile, relations between Seoul and Beijing are experiencing renewed friction amid the modernization of the Korea-U.S. alliance and the possible acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines.

In this increasingly volatile environment, a pragmatic foreign policy rooted in national interest, balancing “solidarity” with “self-reliance,” is more vital than ever.

China’s furious reaction to Takaichi’s remarks reflects its long-standing view of Taiwan as a “core interest.” That the comments were made in Japan’s National Diet, a formal political arena, further inflamed Beijing. China retaliated swiftly by suspending imports of Japanese seafood, issuing advisories discouraging Chinese citizens from traveling to or studying in Japan and delaying the release of Japanese films. More ominously, Beijing has coupled these measures with recurring military warnings and shows of force in the West Sea, signaling that it is prepared to escalate beyond the economic sphere.

Japan, however, appears determined not to yield. China’s response has seemingly reinforced Tokyo’s belief that the region faces an increasingly volatile security environment, strengthening political momentum behind the push to become a “normal military power.” Discussions on revisions to the Peace Constitution’s nonnuclear principles have accelerated, leading to earlier-than-planned updates to Japan’s three core national security documents and even consideration of nuclear submarines. Public opinion is in favor: The approval rating for Takaichi's cabinet has surged to nearly 70 percent.

This fraught regional moment is emblematic of a broader global shift. The international order, once nominally anchored in rules and norms, is increasingly defined by power politics. Dialogue and cooperation among major players is giving way to fragmentation and confrontation. Should the China-Japan standoff deepen, Beijing may consider reviving measures like its 2010 rare-earth export restrictions — steps that would reverberate across global supply chains. The cultural sphere is not immune either, with a Japanese petition demanding that K-pop group aespa be barred from TV because one of its members is Chinese illustrating how quickly geopolitical tensions can spill over into other areas.

Korea faces a strategic imperative: While maintaining the bedrock of the Korea-U.S. alliance and strengthening trilateral cooperation with the United States and Japan, Seoul must also prevent its relationship with Beijing from deteriorating into mutual distrust. Active, nuanced diplomacy is essential. The region needs renewed efforts to restore communication channels, rebuild trust and reframe rivalries into a more stable and predictable form.

The Korean government must monitor the rapidly evolving China-Japan confrontation with vigilance and work to minimize its potential economic, cultural and security-related repercussions. More importantly, Seoul should craft a balanced diplomatic strategy to advance its national interests while navigating an international environment increasingly shaped by hard power and uncertainty. In a Northeast Asia gripped by turbulence, carefully calibrated and practical diplomacy is not merely advisable — it is indispensable.