New and slightly positive developments surrounding Korea's declining birthrate are sparking a small sense of hope, including fresh, out-of-the-box thinking on how we approach family life, have children, and raise them. Last week, the Presidential Committee on Ageing Society and Population cautiously projected that this year's total fertility rate in Korea would be around 0.74 child per woman. This projection exceeds the initial estimate of 0.68 for this year provided by Statistics Korea, a figure that had been starkly compared to the demographic collapse during Europe's 14th-century Black Death.
The committe's announcement follows the National Assembly Budget Office's (NABO) recent prediction that Korea's total fertility rate bottomed out last year. NABO saw the nation on course to a gradual recovery starting this year at 0.74 child per woman. These projections are based on rebounds in marriages and births following the COVID-19 pandemic. A bump in birthrates was registered again in September, where a total of 20,590 babies were born, up 10 percent over the same period last year. It comes on the back of more babies born in the months of July, August, May and April with June being the exception. These modest increases have slightly raised the total fertility rate, reaching 0.71 percent in the second quarter and 0.76 percent in the third quarter.
These improved figures could help Korean policymakers foster a social environment that encourages people to have more children. Korea's low fertility rate has become a global topic, with even Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, recently commenting that "two-thirds of the country (Korea) would 'disappear every generation.'"
Korea's total fertility rate began declining in 2015, when it stood at 1.24. A complex mix of factors is at play, including soaring housing costs, the high cost of raising children — especially education — and the traditional cultural expectation that women often sacrifice their careers when they have a baby. The uptick may signal that government measures, such as preferential loans and housing supplies for newlyweds and those with newborns, increased use of parental leave, and other forms of support, are having an effect — for now.
What policymakers need to focus on is making these improvements sustainable. These temporarily better figures will not suddenly put Korea on track to achieve the 2.1 births per woman required to maintain its population of 51 million.
The news that top actor Jung Woo-sung and model Moon Ga-bi have welcomed a son has dominated headlines, stirring both praise for their decision to have a child outside of marriage and debate over its social implications. Jung did not shy away from public attention, stating at a film festival that he would accept all criticism and take full responsibility as a father.
This public reaction appears to reflect a shift in sentiment, as a recent government survey found that 42.8 percent of people aged 20-29 believe that they can have a child without getting married. Last year, only 4.7 percent of babies born in Korea were born out of wedlock, a stark contrast to the OECD average of 41.9 percent recorded in 2020.
An official at the Presidential Office was quoted on Thursday stating that the government will consider measures to support children born to unmarried parents, ensuring that they can grow up without facing discrimination. This marks a significant shift in both the civic and public spheres. Policymakers should consider introducing tax and birth benefits for individuals who have children outside of civil marriages. These measures could complement existing initiatives such as loans and housing incentives, providing broader support for diverse family structures.
Additionally, the Yoon Suk Yeol administration's proposal to establish a "Population Strategy Ministry," introduced in July but currently stalled in the National Assembly, should be approved. Thoughtful policy preparations and diverse approaches could go a long way in addressing the nation's declining birthrate and enhancing its competitiveness.