The drastic decline in the population has long been cited as the most imminent and pressing problem facing South Korea. Recently a renowned columnist created a stir by claiming Korea’s depopulation may outpace the Black Death's impact on Europe in the 14th century. In a New York Times column, titled “Is South Korea Disappearing?,” Ross Douthat said that estimates for a drop to less than 35 million people by the late 2060s would be enough to thrust Korean society into a crisis.
He describes a gloomy and miserable future that Korea will likely face unless such depopulation stops. “There will be inevitable abandonment of the elderly, vast ghost towns, and ruined high rises, and emigration by young people who see no future as custodians of a retirement community,” he wrote. He even cautions that North Korea (with a fertility rate of 1.8 per woman) could be tempted to invade the South as the latter is struggling with a shortage of soldiers. Regarding the cause of the low births, Douthat cited the “uniquely brutal culture of academic competition” paired with an increase in gender conflicts arising from feminist rebellions and anti-feminist reactions.
Korea’s fertility rate fell to 1.0 in 2018 and continued to decline, reaching 0.78 in 2022 and a record-low 0.7 in the third quarter of this year. Should the steady drop in new marriages persist, it is just a matter of time before the fertility rate will dive to the 0.6 level. The rapidly dropping birthrate has been posing a grave threat to the sustainability of Korean society and the economy.
Additionally, the Bank of Korea released a report on Sunday foreseeing the possibility of Korea registering an economic growth rate of 0.5 percent in 2050 should the low fertility rate continue to remain unresolved.
With regard to the causes of low births, the BOK cited the ever-toughening competition suffered by the younger generations, coupled with uncertainties and concerns surrounding employment, housing and child care.
We should attentively listen to what David Colman, an Oxford professor and renowned demographic expert, who warned that Korea could potentially disappear in 2750 should the existing depopulation trend continue. Hiroya Matsuda, a Japanese sociologist, said earlier that countries will face extinction if the proportion of women aged between 20-39 account for less than half of the number of people older than 65. According to his theory, more than half of Korea’s 226 provincial cities and counties face the danger of extinction. The number of elementary school students is also drastically decreasing. The number of first grade students, who were born in 2017, is expected to fall below 400,000 next year.
As the BOK put it, it is necessary to take comprehensive measures to find a breakthrough in the chronic depopulation issue. First and foremost, the reform of the educational sector should be pursued relentlessly. Prudent policies should be taken to mitigate the burden of private education and cram schools by easing the competition for college entrance. With the goal of modifying the bipolar structure of the labor market, there should be a fairer distribution of wealth, while making more jobs available for the people. Policies should be taken to further stabilize property prices while providing people with more chances to enjoy a balanced life between home and work.
The nation has poured 380 trillion won ($290 billion) from 2006 in an attempt to cope with the low births and aging society. But the massive measures employed so far have failed to bear fruit. On the contrary, the tendency to avoid having children, has been accelerating during this period.
Previous five-year, single-term governments deserve fierce criticism for attempting to pass the buck to their successors. Now, the Yoon Suk Yeol administration should unswervingly carry out policies to resolve the low birth issue. More audacious policies should be taken immediately to assist births, nursing and education.