ED Seoul-Warsaw axis

 

Much attention is being paid to North Korea’s arms deals with Russia, including the supply of artillery shells and other equipment to support Moscow’s offensive against Ukraine. But South Korea’s sizable arms sales overseas have drawn less scrutiny.

Seoul views the arms industry as a new source of economic growth as it challenges the dominance of the U.S., Russia, France, China and Germany in weapons exports.

South Korea’s arms sales have already grown by around 70 percent over the past decade and it accounts for 2.4 percent of global arms exports compared to 5.2 percent for China and 4.2 percent for Germany. It now ranks as the world’s ninth-biggest arms exporter but wants to be the fourth largest by 2027. A decline in Russian arms exports due to its war in Ukraine could help South Korea meet that goal.

South Korea is carving out a niche as an arms supplier to other middle powers. Such deals increase Seoul’s diplomatic clout since arms sales are a key coin of the realm in international relations. The downside is that it could potentially drag South Korea into conflicts.

The Ukraine war and shifting geopolitics are providing a new opportunity for South Korea’s arms export push. Last year, it signed deals worth $17 billion, more than twice as much as in 2021. Most of that was accounted for by a $14.5 billion deal with Poland.

The agreement with Warsaw will provide an interesting test case of whether Seoul can avoid potential pitfalls in its weapons diplomacy, since Poland is a NATO frontline state confronting a resurgent Russia.

It is not an exaggeration to say that South Korea could become one of Poland’s biggest arms suppliers. The deal includes a thousand K2 Black Panther tanks, more tanks than in the armies of the U.K., France, Germany and Italy combined. They will replace Poland’s current tank force of nearly 600 aging German Leopard and modified Soviet-era tanks. South Korea will directly deliver 180 tanks, with the rest to be manufactured in Poland under license from 2026.

Also included in the deal are 672 K9 Thunder self-propelled howitzers, with two-thirds to be locally produced, to replace Poland’s current force of 600 mainly Soviet-era artillery units. South Korea will supply 288 K239 Chunmoo multi-rocket launchers that will be mounted on Polish infantry fighting vehicles, larger than its current force of around 175 units.

In addition, Poland will buy 48 Golden Eagle FA-50 fighter jets to replace the MiG-29 and Su-22 fighters it sent to Ukraine since South Korean aircraft are less expensive and can be delivered more quickly than the American F-16 fighter, which is the mainstay of the Polish Air Force.

Seoul and Warsaw see mutual benefits from the mammoth arms deal. It gives a big boost to the South Korean defense industry, while giving Poland access to South Korean technology that will help expand its own arms manufacturing. South Korea is viewed as an attractive partner due to its swift delivery times, competitive prices and attractive credit terms, while its close cooperation with the U.S. military means much of its domestic equipment is of high quality and meets NATO standardization requirements.

Another advantage that South Korea enjoys is that it is seen by some other countries as a more reliable arms supplier than the U.S., whose weapons sales are often subject to political calculations and conditions. That worry has also been a driving force behind the expansion of South Korea’s defense industry itself since Seoul has been concerned about its heavy dependence on American weaponry.

The same factors that led Poland to choose South Korea as a main arms supplier could result in growing orders from around the world. South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean, for example, is one of the finalists, along with Japan, to win a $45 billion deal to supply Canada with new submarines. It also hopes for possible submarine sales to Poland and the Philippines.

One purpose of President Yoon Suk Yeol’s globe-trotting trips this year, including to the United Arab Emirates, Vietnam, Lithuania, Indonesia and India, is to tout South Korean military sales.

But South Korea’s emergence as a global arms dealer carries with it political and strategic implications. Closer identification and cooperation with NATO countries, including selling arms to them, runs the risk of South Korea becoming entangled in what is shaping up as a new Cold War.

Yoon is promoting “values diplomacy” in supporting the U.S. in its growing confrontation against Russia and China. Arms exports look to be a key component of that foreign policy.

While previously more than half of South Korean arms exports went to other Asian countries, including the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia, the bulk will now go to global “hot spots” in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Such deals imply future military cooperation between Seoul and its defense customers in what is becoming a more dangerous world.

John Burton (johnburtonft@yahoo.com), a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is a Washington, D.C.-based journalist and consultant.