North Korea is behaving erratically ― yet again.
On Thursday, Pyongyang officially confirmed that it has fired a Hwasung-18 intercontinental ballistic missile as Kim Jong-un looked on.
After the launch, Kim threatened to “continue military offensive until the U.S. abandons its hostile policy,” according to the Korean Central News Agency. But missile brinkmanship only increases hostility. It does not reduce it.
The missile flew for 74 minutes at an altitude of over 6,000 km, meaning it can hit the continental U.S. if fired normally. Some say the North has tested its road-mobile ICBM, a type of solid-fuel weapon. If so, it is harder to detect and intercept than liquid-fuel ICBMs.
Aside from the marginal advancement from Hwasung-17 launched three months ago, the latest provocation was noteworthy for two reasons.
First, it came after Kim Yo-jong, sister and spokeswoman for the North Korean leader, threatened to shoot down U.S. spy planes flying over its exclusive economic zone. The younger Kim initially claimed the U.S. intruded into its 12-nautical mile territorial waters, but rectified it to a 200-nautical mile EEZ. However, an EEZ guarantees the freedom of sailing and flying for foreign vessels and planes.
All this shows Pyongyang is set to build excuses for further ― and graver ― provocations. Some North Korea watchers predict the reclusive regime may conduct its seventh nuclear test on July 27, the armistice agreement day that the North calls “Victory Day” to build internal unity. Pyongyang must not cross the red line, however. That will only deepen its isolation.
Second, the rough-tongued propagandist called the South the “Republic of Korea” instead of South Korea or “Southern puppets.” It was the first time a ranking North Korean official used the term ROK in daily statements, not in official documents. Apparently, Kim did not do so out of respect for the South. She treated the South not as part of the same nation divided for some time but as a different ― and hostile ― country.
There were similar signs. After the U.S.-North Korea summit in Hanoi ruptured in 2019, Pyongyang blew up the inter-Korean liaison office just north of the border in 2020. The following year, it eliminated the post of secretary for the south at the Workers' Party and all but shut down the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland. When the Hyundai Group's head expressed her intention to visit North Korea weeks ago, the North's foreign ministry rejected it instead of the official committee.
Since the Basic Agreement made in 1991, the two Koreas have stipulated their relationship not as an international one but as a special relationship formed temporarily while pursuing reunification. That seems to be ending.
Seoul is responding tit for tat. President Yoon Suk Yeol, after telling the Unification Ministry to change its mission “from supporting to watching” North Korea, named a far-right ideologue as its minister recently.
The escalation of hostilities between the Koreas is not just undesirable but dangerous. Inter-Korean ties have been frozen for years, but the North even cut a direct communication line last year. Despite their increasingly fiercer rivalry, the U.S. and China are installing a “guardrail” to keep accidental clashes from escalating into massive conflicts.
The two Koreas should also move in a similar direction in the near term.
In the longer run, they must resume contact and talks. For inter-Korean hawks, the impoverished and belligerent North might have no attractions. However, even aside from economic benefits, like the North's possible complementation of the South in demographic and natural resource terms, benefits will far outweigh costs if the Koreas are reunited.
The reunified Korea could be like a bishop or duke on the global chess board. Divided, they will always remain as two pawns. It will only make those who want the status quo on this divided peninsula happy.
Inter-Korean relations can change drastically, depending on international situations and leaders in both capitals.
As things stand now, the two Koreas will neither recognize nor be able to act on opportunities if they arise.