North Korea will face further isolation and deeper economic woes if it resumes the launch of its intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) or nuclear tests. No one knows this better than its leader Kim Jong-un. However, the Kim regime is reportedly seeking to revoke a self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and ICBM tests.
Concerns are growing that the North might conduct an ICBM launch for the first time since 2017. If such concerns turn into reality, the North will lift its moratorium after adopting it in 2018 amid a detente with South Korea and the United States.
Both Seoul and Washington concluded last week that the North used a new ICBM system in its two missile tests, conducted Feb. 27 and March 5. They suggested that Pyongyang may soon follow through on its threats to resume ICBM launches or nuclear weapons tests. The two allies dismissed the North's claim that the recent tests were for “reconnaissance satellite” development.
The new system could be the Hwasong-17, which was unveiled at a military parade in Pyongyang in October 2020. It appears to be the North's longest-range ICBM carried on a transporter vehicle with 11 axles. Some experts cautiously predicted that the North may test-fire such an ICBM to mark the 110th anniversary of the birth of founding leader and Kim's grandfather Kim Il-sung on April 15.
The North should realize that ICBM launches and nuclear tests violate U.N. Security Council resolutions. Furthermore, such military provocations defy international efforts to ensure peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia. They are also in violation of inter-Korean agreements reached during the three summits held between President Moon Jae-in and Kim in 2018 and 2019.
There are also some indications that the North is restarting its nuclear activities and ICBM development. The South Korean military said it has detected the North's activity to restore parts of tunnels at its Punggyeri nuclear test site that were destroyed in May 2018. Kim Jong-un called for the modernization and expansion of the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground on the west coast during his visit there last week. All of these developments demonstrate that the North is seeking to test-fire ICBMs under the guise of a satellite launch. In January, he hinted at scrapping the moratorium on nuclear and ICBM tests.
The North cannot avoid more international sanctions. On Friday, the U.S. imposed new North Korea-related sanctions on five Russian entities, including two Russians, for aiding Pyongyang's ballistic missile programs. South Korea and other countries should abide by the sanctions to put more pressure on the North to stop its provocations.
We urge the North not to cross the “red line.” The more it tries to develop ICBMs and nuclear weapons, the deeper it plunges into international isolation and economic woes. The North is apparently trying to escalate tensions on the peninsula amid the presidential transition period after Yoon Suk-yeol of the conservative opposition People Power Party (PPP) won the March 9 presidential election. But the North has nothing to gain from its provocation. It should return to dialogue to solve its nuclear issue through diplomacy and peaceful means.