President Moon Jae-in is now faced with mounting challenges from within and without. Troubling him most seems to be inter-Korean ties, the ongoing dispute with Japan over historical and trade issues, and the growing U.S. demand for a bigger contribution in defense cost sharing. Domestically he finds it ever more difficult to speed up an economic recovery and build cooperative ties with the opposition parties.
The present situation surrounding the country is much different from when Moon took office. He presented a new vision for the future after he became president riding on the wave of candlelit protests against then President Park Geun-hye which led to her ouster over a massive corruption scandal.
Moon got off to a good start, vowing to root out corruption, usher in clean politics and promote inclusive economic growth. His policy of active engagement with North Korea seemed to bear fruit as he held three summits with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Moon also played an important role in brokering two summits between Kim and U.S. President Donald Trump to achieve the shared goal of denuclearizing the North.
Now the problem is that Moon is on the verge of losing the driver's seat in the journey toward denuclearization and peace on the peninsula. The North has abruptly scoffed at inter-Korean reconciliation, especially since the no-deal summit between Kim and Trump in Hanoi in February. It has so far this year launched short-range ballistic missiles on eight occasions. Six of the launches took place last month and this month to protest a joint military exercise between the South and the U.S.
Pyongyang has escalated military tension. It has also threatened to sideline Seoul in nuclear talks with Washington, which Moon hoped would be resumed after the joint exercise ended Aug. 20. The Kim regime appears to be returning to its old tactics of having direct negotiations with the U.S, while isolating the South. Under these circumstances, Moon cannot help but feel betrayed by the North.
In the meantime, Trump is applying more pressure on Seoul to pay far more for the stationing of American troops here. Moon has stressed the importance of the alliance with the U.S. Regrettably, however, Washington is more interest in extorting money from the South in the name of defense cost sharing. This U.S. position certainly reflects Trump's “America first” slogan.
President Moon is also faced with the daunting task of finding a solution to Japan's apparent economic retaliation over the wartime forced labor issue. This trade spat, if prolonged, is feared to aggravate the already-troubled Korean economy.
On the domestic politics front, Moon is increasingly under attack for failing to make progress in his signature income-led growth policy, and a lack of effort to seek cooperation with the opposition parties. His nomination of Cho Kuk, a former senior presidential secretary for civic affairs, as justice minister is creating a stir over allegations against Cho and his family's dubious behavior.
All these issues have put Moon to the test. He needs new strategies to deal with all the rising challenges. Otherwise, he may risk undermining his leadership and becoming a lame duck president well before his term ends in 2022.