Inter-Korean detente is expected to help Seoul and Pyongyang ease military tensions and avoid the risk of war. This expectation gained a boost after South Korea proposed North Korea withdraw its long-range artillery from the heavily fortified border.
The South made the proposal during Thursday's general-level meeting with the North, the first in more than a decade. Sources said the North virtually accepted the suggestion so it can be discussed in follow-up talks. They said the North called on the South's military and United States Forces Korea (USFK) to take reciprocal steps.
It is worth noting that the two Koreas have started discussions about the relocation of the North's artillery pieces to rear areas 30 kilometers to 40 kilometers from the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) that separates the two. If the North agrees on the withdrawal, the South may need to take similar steps on a reciprocal basis.
Such a discussion could signal meaningful progress from the North which had often threatened to turn Seoul into a “sea of fire.” It followed the June 12 summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and U.S. President Donald Trump. The historic Singapore summit was big on symbolism but short on concrete action for the North's denuclearization. However, Seoul hopes the meeting will give a boost to inter-Korean rapprochement.
Against this backdrop, the South-North military talks -- if they go well -- can serve as a catalyst not only to alleviate tension on the Korean Peninsula, but also to build up mutual trust. Without removing military threats against each other, the two Koreas can never go down the path toward peace and prosperity.
The South sees the North's long-range artillery as one of three major threats, along with nuclear weapons and missiles, to its security. The North currently deploys more than 1,000 artillery pieces along the border. And about 330 of them are 170mm-caliber self-propelled howitzers and 240mm-multiple rocket launchers aimed at Seoul and surrounding areas.
Thus, the relocation of the artillery could remove practical threats against the South. It could also contribute to initiating arms control between the two sides. Yet, there still is skepticism over the North's real intentions -- both of denuclearization and inter-Korean detente.
Pyongyang might try to use Seoul's proposal as leverage to demand the removal of U.S. strategic assets, including the nuclear umbrella, from the South. It may also call for the reduction or withdrawal of U.S. troops from the South. No one can rule out the possibility of the North raising its voice for such demands, particularly after President Trump agreed to suspend military drills with the South during the ongoing nuclear negotiations.
The suspension of the “war games” as Trump called them may have a positive effect on the complete denuclearization of the North. But it is still premature to stop the drills, given that Pyongyang has yet to present action plans or a timeline for dismantling its nuclear weapons. In this context, the inter-Korean military talks need to keep pace with the North's denuclearization process to make a substantive progress.