President Donald Trump's reshuffle of his security and diplomatic team is likely to enable him to take a more hard-line stance on North Korea.
By tapping the hawkish John Bolton as his national security adviser, Trump seems to clarify his intention of not repeating mistakes as far as the North's denuclearization is concerned.
Bolton's appointment came last week after Trump picked another hard-liner, CIA Director Mike Pompeo, to replace Rex Tillerson as secretary of state. If the two nominees are named after going through confirmation hearings, the lineup of Trump's top security and diplomatic posts will be filled with hawks. U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley is also a hard-liner.
The new lineup is drawing special attention because it was disclosed just before an inter-Korean summit scheduled for April and a U.S.-North Korea summit expected in May. It will no doubt affect the summits one way or another.
The problem is Trump's hawkish tilt may have more negative implications than positive ones on the detente between the two Koreas and denuclearization talks between Pyongyang and Washington.
Some U.S. media described the reshuffle as a return to the hawkish era or a comeback of the neoconservatives of the George W. Bush administration. Conservative firebrand Bolton's return in particular is raising concern the Trump administration might get tougher with North Korea and Iran.
If Trump fails to get whatever he wants from the summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, he could immediately shift from dialogue to military options, including a pre-emptive strike.
We should notice that Bolton, who was U.S. ambassador to the U.N. in 2005 and 2006 under the Bush administration, has advocated military action against North Korea and Iran. Of course, Trump is to make final decisions regarding security and foreign policy, considering his unilateral governing style.
However, it is certain Trump ditched moderates and pragmatists such as national security adviser H.R. McMaster and Secretary of State Tillerson to favor hawks and loyalists. Therefore, Bolton and Pompeo are expected to help Trump introduce more unilateral and hard-line policies to push his “America-first” slogan.
On the other hand, Trump can make a quicker and stronger response to the North Korean nuclear issue with the help of the new lineup. Now, he seems to maintain a two-track strategy at least until the planned summit: leaving the doors open to dialogue with Pyongyang and keeping up maximum pressure to ensure the North's immediate and complete denuclearization.
The Moon Jae-in administration needs to prepare for a worst-case scenario in case the Trump-Kim summit ends up in an anticlimax and the U.S. turns to military options. To prevent such a catastrophe, President Moon must do his utmost to take successful results from the inter-Korean summit. He must ensure the North's commitment to abandoning its nuclear program.
On the part of North Korea, Kim Jong-un should not try to buy time to complete his nuclear program. Instead, he should take sincere and faithful steps toward denuclearization.