The past two months have driven the Korean Peninsula the closest to war since 1994, when America and North Korea were a hair’s breadth from military clashes. If the Koreas stop their ongoing game of chicken and ride out April ― when the North will celebrate the anniversary of Kim Il-sung’s birthday and the South continues a joint military drill with the United States ― a temporary calm may prevail. But for how long? A year or two or just several months?
It’s long past time all parties involved put an end to this vicious circle of provocations, sanctions and threats of more provocations ― until they may end up as full-scale conflicts ― and seek a lasting structure of peace. Who should take the initiative? It must be South Korea, which has the most to lose from the potential catastrophe.
This is no good time for Pyongyang on the one hand and Seoul and Washington on the other to be mired in guessing games and struggling to read each other’s minds. The North told foreign embassies in its capital city to come up with emergency evacuation plans Friday. Yet the South and its U.S. ally played it down as another propaganda ploy to ratchet up tension and enforce a concession.
The allies may be right. But it seems as if they were saying, ``We defy you to do so (make provocations).” Kim Jong-un, who may want a phone call from U.S. President Barack Obama as some British diplomats in Pyongyang say, could find the response more than insulting.
Either out of miscalculation or self-consciousness to prove he is a man of his words, the young North Korean leader could feel tempted ― or forced ― to act amid this escalating war of words and show of force.
But why should Seoul rely on this 30-year-old’s better reasoning and psychological normalcy for the safety of 50 million Koreans and the keeping of hard-won economic prosperity? What keeps South Korea from taking bolder initiatives in the inter-Korean relationship is only the inner split caused by a lingering Cold War mentality and resultant ideological dogfight at home.
Fundamentally, it has been, and will be, the United States ― not China ― that holds the key to solving the North Korean nuclear crisis. Of course, Beijing is not free from blame for spoiling its communist ally out of its own Cold War need to maintain the status quo. But Washington’s misunderstanding and neglect of the North Korean regime are chiefly behind the escalation of the crisis. Seoul should conduct more active diplomacy to persuade both giants, in ways to make Washington more understanding of Pyongyang’s situation and Beijing less indulgent of its troublesome ally.
President Park Geun-hye, who has put forth her ``Korean Peninsula trust process,” has been coping relatively well with the current military escalation by remaining prudent.
But she must do more. Her scheduled visits to Washington and Beijing next month should be occasions for Seoul to shift from a passive on-looker to active mediator. There are also things Park can, and should, do even before making formal diplomatic debuts, such as breaking the impasse by sounding out the chance for direct inter-Korean dialogue through the dispatch of a special envoy, as opposition parties call for.
At home, Park should calm down irresponsible hard-liners in the military and within her national security team. The military has proved strong in words but weak in acts, as shown by the crossing of a North Korean defector back to North Korea via the West Sea even amid what officials say, wrongly, is watertight vigilance.
There will be clear limitations to what South Korea can do even if it tries its utmost. If Seoul sits by idly or blindly follows its giant partners, Koreans will have to remain as they are, if not far worse, for many more years to come.