North Korea’s plan to launch a satellite next month is in total disregard of the Feb. 29 deal with the United State to refrain from long-range missile launches. If implemented, it will lead to a violation of the U.N. resolution banning the North from using ballistic missile technology.
On Friday, Pyongyang announced that its Unha-3 rocket carrying an observation satellite, Kwangmyongsong-3, will blast off from its launch site in North Pyongan Province between April 12 and 15. It claims this will be part of its peaceful space program. But the satellite launch is arguably a disguised attempt to test-fire an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).
No doubt the North’s move is a provocative act threatening peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia. It is in defiance of its latest deal with the U.S. that raised hope for rapprochement. At the end of last month, the North agreed to suspend uranium enrichment and place a moratorium on nuclear and long-range missile tests in return for 240,000 tons of food assistance.
How could Pyongyang renege on the agreement in just two weeks? The new leadership under Kim Jong-un, youngest son of the late leader Kim Jong-il, certainly knows that the move will be a deal breaker. There must be some reasons for the North to run the risk of jeopardizing the deal and invite criticism from the international community.
The launch plan is to mark the centenary of the birth of Kim Il-sung, the North’s founder and grandfather of Kim Jong-un, on April 15. By firing the rocket, the isolated communist state apparently wants to show off its power at home and abroad. In particular, the North needs to have something to boast of as it has vowed to transform itself into a “prosperous and strong” nation this year. However, it has done little to do so. Thus, it appears that the Kim regime has no choice but to play the rocket card.
By launching the rocket, the young, inexperienced Kim could consolidate his power after he succeeded his father who died in December. He may reinforce national unity by rallying people behind himself. The rocket card is seen as a replay of brinksmanship intended to boost the North’s negotiating power with the U.S. to get more concessions.
Whatever the reason, Pyongyang certainly has more to lose than to gain. First of all, the North will lose its credibility as a responsible member of the international society. It might think it has nothing to lose as it is already infamous for betraying trust by violating its international obligations.
The North has a notorious track record of brinksmanship, nuclear gambling and saber-rattling. It has repeated a bad cycle of striking denuclearization deals in exchange for economic aid and then suspending talks, undoing its commitments and carrying out provocations. It has managed to buy time through the six-party process to develop nuclear bombs and missile technology. Pyongyang launched a long-range Taepodong-2 missile in 2006 and 2009, after test-firing the Taepodong-1 in 1998. It also conducted nuclear bomb tests in 2006 and 2009.
Needless to say, North Korea is engrossed in maintaining its dictatorial regime by adopting a “military first” policy. But, military strength alone cannot be a survival strategy any more as seen in the Arab Spring. Costly and reckless nuclear programs and missile launches may speed up the collapse of the precarious regime and the already-impoverished state. We urge Pyongyang to give up the rocket plan and restart the denuclearization process to move toward peace and coexistence.