This week marks the first anniversary of North Korea’s sinking of a South Korean Navy ship off the northern maritime border. Pyongyang is proactive for inter-Korean dialogue these days. Seoul will accept its proposals for dialogue only when it apologizes for its clandestine torpedo attack on March 26 last year.
The North has suggested a series of talks in recent weeks. It says it is ready to study the construction of railroads, gas pipelines and an electricity system which pass through the North from the South to Russia.
Talking about the trans-Siberia gas pipeline passing through the North, may be a heavy issue to discuss now in view of the inter-Korean tension and animosity.
Seoul’s leaders, including Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun, have proposed the project for the past two decades. The issue was put on the back burner due to the North’s skepticism despite agreement between South Korea and Russia.
Pyongyang has proposed inter-Korean talks on a joint seismic survey on Mt. Baekdu.
The North also emphasized the need for resuming the six-party talks aimed at denuclearization.
Kim Jong-il expressed his appreciation for the late Hyundai Group founder Chung Ju-yung on the occasion of the 10th anniversary of his death last week.
The South has little reason to reject the talks as long as the North sincerely apologizes for its torpedo attack on the Navy ship which killed 46 sailors a year ago.
Without this admission, the South will question its sincerity. The North has repeatedly denied its involvement in the sinking. If so, it should put forward evidence that substantiates its claim.
Kim Jong-il may face limits in persuading South Koreans to be positive toward resuming even humanitarian aid, including rice and fertilizer, without a straightforward confession.
Seoul also sees the six-way talks as dialogue for dialogue’s sake unless the North is ready to dismantle its nuclear weapons.
The South needs to devise ways of encouraging the North to apologize without a loss of face. It may be necessary for the South to read the North’s true intention through informal talks before resuming formal ones.
Seoul’s North Korea policy needs a serious review. It would be misleading to conclude that the Kim regime will collapse anytime soon like those in Egypt and Tunisia.
There are theories that the Jasmine Revolution is not possible in the North, at least for the time being.
First, North Korea could not expect a mobile revolution. It has less than 300,000 mobile phones. Internet and social networking services are tightly blocked.
Second, the communist Chinese leadership would never tolerate a grass-roots uprising in the North as this could have a boomerang effect.
Third, the North has no experience in changes of government unlike Egypt, Tunisia and China.
Fourth, the North leadership has no record of pro-American ties. Dictators in Egypt and Tunisia were ousted after maintaining pro-U.S. relations.
For these reasons the North may not implode anytime soon although its collapse is inevitable.
The Lee administration may be wrong if its Pyongyang policy is based on the imminent collapse of the Kim dynasty. The only feasible option is to resume a principled dialogue with the North. Seoul should make efforts to ensure Koreas are living together peacefully.