President Lee Myung-bak hinted at the possibility that the Kim Jong-il regime of North Korea may collapse in the face of people’s call for change. “There is no political power in history that can go against people’s aspiration for change,” Lee told a meeting of the Presidential Committee on Social Cohesion at Cheong Wa Dae, Friday.
Lee said he believes that there has been a positive change in the North. He pointed out that North Koreans can tend a vegetable garden in their backyard and trade goods in a market in their neighborhood. He added a growing number of North Koreans are coming to South Korea. His remarks indicated he has hope that people in the North may bring change to the repressive and brutal regime there.
President Lee was apparently trying to draw a line between the Kim regime and North Koreans. In a nationally televised address on Nov. 29 to condemn the North’s artillery attack on Yeonpyeong Island in the tense West Sea, he made it clear that Seoul would no longer anticipate a course of change in the leadership of the North. It is natural for him to take a more hard-line stance against the world’s last Stalinist country following its repeated provocations including the Nov. 23 artillery shelling that killed two marines and two civilians. The North also sank the South Korean warship Cheonan in a torpedo attack on March 26, killing 46 sailors.
Past experiences show that the North Korean regime has no intension of changing its notorious policy of brinkmanship and saber-rattling. It has never abandoned its nuclear ambitions despite a set of previous denuclearization pledges. It has only taken advantage of a decade of Seoul’s Sunshine Policy of active engagement with Pyongyang to secretly develop nuclear bombs and other weapons of mass destruction.
Kim Jong-il may believe that his regime will not fall as long as the North possesses nuclear weapons. He may consider that he can smoothly transfer power to his youngest son, Kim Jong-un, as long as the North implements its military first policy. He may be confident that he and his heir apparent can continue a Kim dynasty by tightening a grip on power. But, history tells that socialist countries such as the Soviet Union and other East European nations could not prevent their collapse with nuclear arsenals or military might.
Policymakers, researchers and pundits at home and abroad have predicted that the North’s military regime may collapse someday in the not-too-distant future. Such a prediction is gaining ground, especially following the attack on the island. Some are even calling for a regime change in the impoverished North. One of them is U.S. Sen. John McCain who said it’s time to discuss regime change in the communist state, although he did not suggest military action against it.
Seoul has immediately ruled out any effort for a regime change. But it is apparent that policymakers are paying more attention to potential collapse of the Kim regime amid political instability and economic woes. According to media reports, the U.S. and Japan will soon begin a policy consultation to prepare for an emergency situation in the North. The South should leave no stone unturned to avoid any catastrophic consequences on the Korean Peninsula.