It was extraordinary for North Korean leader Kim Jong-il to travel to China only three months after his previous visit to the neighboring country. It was also strange for Kim to make a foreign visit when former U.S. President Jimmy Carter was in Pyongyang on his mission to free an imprisoned American. In every respect, Kim’s China visit defied the understanding of officials, pundits and the public here in South Korea.
Kim caught the world by surprise making his second visit to the Asian power in just three months. But everything about his stay in China was shrouded in secrecy. Neither North Korea nor China has confirmed his visit, causing media outlets to rely on speculation and second-hand intelligence sources for reporting it.
Now, the question is what made Kim go to China’s northeast province of Jilin. News reports indicated that he met with Chinese President Hu Jintao in Changchun, the capital of the province, Friday, who was on a summer vacation there. Was there any urgent need for the North Korean leader to hold a summit, although unconfirmed, with his Chinese counterpart?
Speculation is growing that Kim’s visit was closely related with the hereditary power succession of his youngest son, Jong-un. Local and international media cited unidentified sources saying that Kim was accompanied by his son. It is no secret that the ailing 68-year-old leader is preparing to hand power over to the younger Kim, still in his 20s.
If it is confirmed that he traveled to China with Jong-un, Kim might seek Chinese approval for the power transfer. It is worth noting that Kim’s visit came before the North’s ruling Workers’ Party is scheduled to hold a rare leadership meeting early next month. Such an assembly will be the first of its kind in 44 years. No one has ruled out the possibility of Jong-un making his public debut as Kim’s heir-apparent.
Kim’s visit was also apparently designed to ask for more Chinese aid to the already-impoverished North, of which its economic woes have exacerbated following its currency reform last November. The situation has gone from bad to worse due to monsoon floods this summer.
It can be inferred that Kim’s sudden move will have a certain impact on the geopolitical situations on the Korean Peninsula. Kim probably asked China to neutralize efforts by Seoul and Washington to take punitive action against Pyongyang for sinking the South Korean warship Cheonan in March. China and North Korea have recently agreed to resume the stalled six-nation denuclearization talks, an apparent step to help Pyongyang shirk its responsibility for the ship attack.
Concerns are rising that Kim’s visit will cement Sino-North Korean ties in response to the U.S.-South Korean efforts to hold Pyongyang culpable for the naval incident and prevent further provocation by the communist state. This might revive the Cold War confrontations in Northeast Asia. The latest developments show how difficult it is to defuse tensions and move toward reconciliation and peace in the volatile region.