Test in March on N. Korea

By Tong Kim

North Korea is staying the hardline course: refusing calls for talks without U.S. acceptance of its demands and waging an all-out self-reliance campaign for a “head-on” fight against sanctions, while developing nuclear weapons. This head-on policy was opted for by Kim Jong-un during an expanded Central Committee meeting of the Workers' Party of Korea held at the end of December.

Kim has appointed Ri Son-gwon, a hardliner with no diplomatic experience, as his new foreign minister, replacing Ri Yong-ho, a veteran diplomat. This shift does not signal a change in Pyongyang's policy; it reflects Kim's determination toward a self-reliant economy and a strong strategic deterrent. In the North, a foreign minister rarely makes critical policy decisions. Kim does.

The new minister is a former army colonel and has considerable experience in dealing with South Koreans. However, he was known for a lack of diplomatic decorum while interacting with South Koreans. He may behave as did his rough boss, Kim Yong-chol, did when he was representing Chairman Kim to President Trump. Ri recently headed the Committee for Peaceful Unification of the Country; a party propaganda agency.

The new foreign minister showed up at a Lunar New Year reception held for the diplomatic corps in Pyongyang on Jan. 23. There he confirmed that he would carry out Chairman Kim's policy. Ri said, “The Korean people have turned out in the general offensive to break through head-on the barriers to the advance of socialist construction by dint of self-reliance.”

The KCNA reported, “He also made public the foreign policy stand of the DPRK government.” But no details were provided. It is likely that Ri reiterated the policy line that Kim outlined before: a self-reliant economy based on a strong strategic deterrent.

On Jan. 25, the party organ, the Rodong Sinmun, called for “a continuing revolutionary task to frustrate the isolating and stifling moves of the hostile forces and open the road to socialist construction by steadily building up our own force.”

On Jan. 21 in Geneva, Ju Yong-chol, a counsellor-level representative delivered Pyongyang's latest narrative on U.S.-DPRK relations to the U.N.-backed Conference on Disarmament. That is, the current stalemate in nuclear talks was because of U.S. failure to meet the December deadline. North Korea tried to build U.S. confidence by stopping nuclear and missile tests for two years, but the U.S. continued with war-game drills and sanctions against the North.

Ju accused the U.S. of applying “the most brutal and inhumane sanctions” to “block North Korea's development and stifle its political system.” He added, “If the U.S. persists with such a hostile policy, there will never be denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.”

Pyongyang's envoy also echoed Kim Jong-un's statement that “North Korea was no longer bound by commitments to halt nuclear and missile testing,” because of the U.S. sanctions and military drills in violation of the agreement at Singapore in the summer of 2018.

In Washington, Trump is too busy watching his impeachment trial by the Senate. But, his national security team ― including State, Defense, and NSC ― are consistently calling on the North to return to talks, while showing no indication of making concession on sanctions.

Kim's self-reliance campaign may not succeed in enabling continued development of his nuclear arsenal and assuring economic development. Yet, Kim is determined not to beg for sanctions relief in exchange for his nuclear weapons. This position may be part of his overall strategy. He said he is prepared for a protracted strategic game.

North Korea has survived the severe sanctions so far and was still, somehow, able to develop nuclear weapons and missiles. The other side of the coin says sanctions have so far failed to denuclearize North Korea. Even Russia's Putin has said of North Korea, "They will eat grass, but they will not turn away from the path that will provide for their security."

While many believe that sanctions brought North Korea to negotiations, now it is unlikely that they will bring it back to the table this time unless there is some acceptable level of relief from them.

The North is unlikely to just sit and wait endlessly, until Washington somehow accepts its demands. North Korea will do something to make sure it stays the focus of attention by Washington. Likely, some provocation, not explosive enough to close the door to diplomacy.

And it is not unimaginable that the timing for that test will be around March less than two month from now, when the U.S. and South Korea will decide what they are going to do with their joint annual military exercises.

Tong Kim (tong.kim8@yahoo.com

) is a visiting professor with the University of North Korean Studies, a visiting scholar with Korea University, a fellow at the Institute of Corean-American Studies, and a columnist for The Korea Times.