By Tong Kim
South Korea is facing unprecedented challenges for its security, sovereignty and wellbeing from multiple sources: North Korea, China, Russia, Japan and even from the United States ― Seoul's only treaty ally on which Seoul depends for a nuclear umbrella against the North.
North Korea appears to be perfecting its short-range ballistic missiles capable of striking all areas of South Korea. Kim Jong-un is still communicating with Donald Trump, but not with Moon Jae-in, who is accused of going easy on Kim.
A Russian military airplane recently invaded the territorial airspace over Dokdo, while conducting with China a joint air drill violating the Korean Air Defense Identification Zone (KADIZ).
Seoul's relationship with Tokyo has fallen to its lowest point since the 1965 treaty normalized bilateral relations. If not properly addressed in time, the dispute will hurt both countries in the end. It is threatening the automatic annual renewal of the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA), which Washington regards as a critical component of the trilateral security structure with Seoul and Tokyo.
Japan's Abe refuses to resolve the issue by dialogue. If both sides rush to a trade war, there will be no winner. It will also affect the U.S. strategy for a free and open Indo-Pacific region to the unintended benefit of China and Russia. This Indo-Pacific strategy is perhaps the most ambitious foreign policy initiative by the Trump administration.
The Trump administration does not seem to know what to do about the trade and history disputes between its two allies. It simply recognizes the negative impact of the problem on its strategic interest in the region. It only hopes the two resolve their issues somehow by themselves.
Washington is meanwhile demanding South Korea pay more for the cost of the presence of U.S. troops in Korea. Seoul is now paying about $1 billion annually for its share. Trump tweeted that South Korea had agreed to pay a lot more, and he has said it costs $5 billion to defend South Korea. Fortunately, his words have turned out to be inaccurate. Trump still complains that the U.S. is paying for the defense of its rich allies like South Korea.
New U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper in Seoul last week did not mention any numbers for defense cost sharing, as stated in the Special Measures Agreement (SMA). No teams or a timeline have yet been set up for the next round of SMA negotiations.
There are other challenges for Seoul. In the wake of U.S. abrogation of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia, there were reports that Washington was considering deploying intermediate-range missiles in South Korea and Japan. China has warned against such deployment. South Korea has not fully recovered from economic losses sustained due to China's retaliation against the deployment of the THAAD system in the South.
In the midst of these challenges, North Korea stands out as a hot spot. The North has completed the development of tactical short-range missiles and multiple rockets systems that they can deploy for operation and strike the South from anywhere in the North. They call them “countermeasures” against “potential and direct threats” from the South.
Pyongyang's foreign ministry issued a special statement on Aug. 6, and the Central Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Country (CCPRC) that deals with inter-Korean affairs published an open letter on Aug. 8, to warn the risk of the U.S.-South Korean joint exercises that began on Aug. 5.
Neither of the two statements was harsh by Pyongyang's standards, despite its inclusion of some threatening words: The North may have to take “a new road” or “make the South Korean authorities pay a heavy price.” “A new road” implies a return to nuclear and ICBM tests.
Both statements said, “The DPRK is compelled to take countermeasures” against the joint drills carried out by the U.S. and South Korea. The North “remains unchanged in our stand to resolve the issue through dialogue.” And to the U.S., “there is no need to have a dialogue with those who have no sense of communication.”
In Washington, Trump announced that he had received another “really beautiful three-page letter” from Kim Jong-un on Aug. 8. Trump said he could have another meeting with Kim. In a tweet on Aug. 10, Trump said Kim had apologized to him for the missile tests, and “he will stop them after the U.S.-South Korean military drills are over.”
Trump said he himself “had never been a fan of the war games,” because he did not like to pay for it. And he said he had told South Korea that the U.S. should be reimbursed.
Tong Kim is a Washington correspondent and columnist for The Korea Times. He is also a fellow at the Institute of Corean-American Studies.