Behind NK missile launch

By Tong Kim

With a show of newly developed nuclear capable weapons ― with the July 23 unveiling of a newly-built submarine, probably capable of carrying three SLBMs, and the launch of two ballistic missiles on July 25, capable of targeting Jeju Island, on top of the clear and present threat of an expanding nuclear arsenal, Kim Jong-un is pushing South Korea to change its course of cooperation with the United States.

According to a July27 KCNA report, Kim said: “The power demonstration fire of the new type tactical guided weapons” was to warn the “South Korean military warmongers running a high fever … to introduce the ultramodern offensive weapons into South Korea and hold military exercises.” Kim advised the South Korean President “to stop such a suicidal act” and said the South “should not make the mistake of ignoring this solemn warning.”

Pyongyang has long complained about joint military drills between South Korea and the U.S. Its foreign ministry recently warned that the joint exercise scheduled for August could affect working-level talks with the U.S. The ministry has also complained about the arrival of two F-35A stealth fighters in Seoul, out of the 40 that Seoul will get from the U.S. by 2021.

North Korea has cut down its cooperation with the South for some time now. It has boycotted representation at the joint inter-Korean liaison office in Gaeseong. It has turned down Seoul's humanitarian offer of 50,000 tons of rice through the World Food Plan to protest the military exercises. It is not happy with Seoul's alliance with Washington. It has decided not to participate in the annual ASEAN Regional Forum, where the South Korean foreign minister was hoping to meet with her counterpart from the North.

North Korea has a bad economy that is experiencing “negative growth.” South Korea has the resources to help it out, but the North does not believe the South is independent of U.S. policy. A recent article in The Rodong newspaper said, “As long as we have air and water, we can create anything and survive any hardships,” an expression of a strong will, perhaps, to fight the plight from sanctions.

The North this time fired two “short-range ballistic missiles” from the vicinity of Wonsan into the East Sea. The missiles soared up to an altitude of 50 kilometers and flew 600 kilometers. The new type missile appears to be an improved version of the North Korean copy of Russia's Iskandar that was fired in May.

The North claims that the weapon has the features of “low altitude gliding (for horizontal travel) and leaping flight orbit (by 'pull-off'),” that are designed to avoid interceptions by air defense systems such as THAAD and Patriot.

There is no doubt that the North's new missile and its new submarine will increase the security threat to the South. The North is using solid-fuel for its new missiles, and mobile launchers for quick firing, making it harder to detect their locations in advance. The North is concerned about the enhancing deterrent capability of South Korea, which it claims is a security threat to its country.

Clearly, an arms race is continuing between the North and the South in the absence of mutual trust, despite several summits, multiple agreements, and various peaceful gestures. Both sides probably have enough arms already to destroy each other. A sensible mind would think the ongoing arms race should come to an end, the sooner the better.

From the KCNA report, one can find a few clues that shed some light on the ulterior motives behind the missile launch: (1) Kim Jong Un wants to continue diplomacy with Trump in view of no criticism by the U.S.; (2) to assure the North Korean people that he is taking care of their national defense; (3) to demonstrate his toughness on the South, with a hidden message that Kim can deal directly with Trump; and (4) to increase leverage for working-level talks with the U.S. when they are held.

In Washington, Trump played down the impact of last week's missile launch, saying the North fired “only small ones,” “short-range” and “very standard missiles.” There was no warning given to the United States, he added. His administration is ready to resume talks at the working-level, when the North is ready. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said he was hoping the talks could resume “in a couple of weeks.”

It will probably take Pyongyang a little longer to come to the table. It will first analyze responses to its latest missile firing from the major countries concerned and around the world, while refining its negotiating strategy for working-level talks.

Tong Kim is a Washington correspondent and columnist for The Korea Times. He is also a fellow at the Institute of Corean-American Studies.